Written by: Maelstrom
Translated by: Saoirse, Foresight News
Hyperliquid once experienced a period of remarkable growth—its ecosystem flourished, trading volume reached all-time highs, and the USDH bidding war became one of the most closely watched "hot events" in the history of the crypto industry. But beneath the "crown" hangs the "Sword of Damocles": HYPE is about to face its first real test.
Starting from November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will be gradually unlocked over 24 months. At a price of $50 per token, the total value of tokens unlocked by the team this time reaches $11.9 billions, meaning nearly $500 millions in nominal value of tokens will flow into the market each month.
What's the issue? The current buyback scale can only absorb about 17% of the unlocked tokens, which means there will be an excess supply of $410 millions worth of tokens each month. Has the market fully digested the impact of such a massive unlock?
Research support: @lukas_rppt
Let's put ourselves in their shoes: If you were a Hyperliquid developer who had worked hard for years, and now a life-changing amount of tokens is about to be unlocked, just a click away from being cashed out—what would you choose to do?
Can DAT Turn the Tide?
With the help of Sonnet, one of the largest decentralized autonomous teams/funds (DAT) in crypto history, deployment is expected to be completed in Q4 2025. The project has raised about $583 millions through HYPE tokens and $305 millions in cash. However, even if the funds of Sonnet and other smaller HYPE DATs are combined, it is still a "drop in the bucket" compared to the upcoming HYPE token unlock.
When "Sharks" Smell "Blood"
In the crypto industry, it's impossible to walk away unchallenged after seizing the initiative. Business is like war, and historical data shows that most crypto products have relatively short "life cycles"—success always attracts the covetous eyes of many "predators." Competition is intensifying: there is pressure from top exchanges, as well as the impact of new entrants like Lighter.xyz (an investment company under Maelstrom). Moreover, Zhao Changpeng launched Aster two months before the HYPE unlock—this is likely no coincidence.
The game is about to end!
