Flow KursFLOW

BTCFi Alpha File #07: August 13m2 January 2024 rewired Bitcoin’s demand curve. Spot ETFs made buying $BTC a requirement, not a choice. Flows are mechanical, execution is instant...and none of it earns yield yet. BTCFi is about to change that. ● From Exposure to Productivity Capital with a permanent bid eventually asks: “What can this $BTC do while we hold it?” Spot Bitcoin ETFs today is inert. Perfect for price exposure, useless for cash flow. The unlock? Yield-bearing BTCFi products that keep native withdrawal guarantees and fit compliance guardrails. ETF allocators are already primed: ✅ Long horizons ✅ Scale ✅ Preference for stable, risk-adjusted returns over headline APYs

13/13 - From CBDCs in Hong Kong & Brazil to Euroclear & DTCC, @chainlinklabs is building the rails that will let institutional money flow into blockchain safely, while already dominating DeFi. Full breakdown 👇

📊 Price Structure and Immediate Levels I’m seeing SOL steadily work its way toward the $205.6–$238 gap zone, an area that pushed price back before but is now under renewed pressure from buyers. This is one of those moments I watch closely, because a decisive daily close above $205.6 could unlock a smooth path to $216.72, with scope to test $238. The return of a golden cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages adds weight to the bullish setup, and the developing cup-and-handle structure gives me reason to think we could be looking at $240–$248 targets if momentum holds. 💧 Volume and Liquidity Dynamics While price action is constructive, I can’t ignore the decline in buying volume. This is something you’ll want to track as well, because reduced participation often precedes either a pause or a sharp acceleration once liquidity floods back in. It’s reminiscent of what we saw in ETH and BTC before major breakouts. On the other hand, the money flow indicator remains in step with price, showing steady capital inflow. That tells me accumulation is still underway, even if the order book looks quieter than expected. 🚀 Fundamental Catalysts and Market Positioning From my perspective, the fundamentals have only grown stronger. Institutional flows have picked up, driven in part by large-scale tokenization efforts that helped SOL reclaim and hold above $200. Axiom Exchange’s rapid climb to over $200 million in revenue in just 73 days is a statement on Solana’s throughput and commercial use. And with Blue Origin now accepting SOL for spaceflight bookings, I see its relevance expanding well beyond the crypto space. The first-ever staking ETF for SOL is another tailwind that, in my view, could quietly set the stage for deeper institutional positioning. 🐋 Order Flow and Whale Activity One thing I’m keeping an eye on is whale activity; over 226,000 SOL, worth nearly $40 million, has moved to exchanges this week. This means there’s short-term supply pressure in the mix. I don’t see it as sustained distribution yet, but it does mean we need to watch key support levels closely in case selling starts to accelerate. 📈 Outlook The bullish formations, steady liquidity inflows, and expanding real-world use cases give SOL a solid foundation for further gains. For me, the real tell will be whether price can hold and close above $205.6 with conviction. If it does, I think you’ll see that run toward $238–$248 develop more quickly. Fail to clear it, and we’re looking at extended consolidation before the next push. $SOL Market Stance: Moderately bullish, with a focus on sustained closes above $205.6 to validate the next leg higher.

The Significance of GDP (PPP) for India GDP measured at PPP, rather than at nominal exchange rates, provides a more accurate reflection of an economy's real size. This is because PPP accounts for differences in the cost of goods and services between countries. Since the cost of living is significantly lower in India compared to developed nations like the U.S. or Germany, a given amount of money can purchase a far greater quantity of goods and services.   This is why, while India's nominal GDP ranks as the fourth or fifth largest in the world, its GDP measured in PPP terms is consistently ranked as the third largest, behind only China and the United States. This distinction is crucial to Morgan Stanley's bullish view on India foreveral reasons:   Massive Domestic Market: The high PPP ranking indicates a vast and robust domestic consumer market. A large portion of India's economic output is driven by domestic consumption, which makes the economy more resilient to global economic shocks and fluctuations. Morgan Stanley has noted that domestic consumption is around 71% of India's GDP, and this strong internal demand is a key pillar of its growth forecasts.   Global Economic Influence: The size of India's economy in PPP terms means it has a significant and growing share of global economic output. Morgan Stanley has projected that India is likely to contribute around 20% of global growth over the next decade. This makes India a key driver of earnings for multinational companies and an increasingly important player in the global economy. Per Capita Growth and Rising Incomes: Although India's GDP per capita (nominal) is still relatively low, the per capita GDP (PPP) provides a better picture of the actual living standards and purchasing power of its population. Morgan Stanley forecasts a substantial rise in per capita GDP in both its base and bullish scenarios, which points to a growing middle class and increasing consumer spending.   Morgan Stanley's Forecasts in Context of GDP (PPP) Morgan Stanley's reports on India often use both nominal and PPP metrics to provide a comprehensive outlook. The firm's projection that India will become the third-largest economy by 2028 is based on its nominal GDP, where it is expected to surpass Germany. However, its analysis of India's long-term potential is heavily influenced by the country's already strong position in PPP terms.   The bank's reports also underscore the importance of "competitive federalism" and state-level growth. Morgan Stanley has noted that several Indian states could each become a $1 trillion economy by 2035, a growth trajectory that is best understood in the context of their massive internal markets and purchasing power. In summary, Morgan Stanley's perspective is that India is not just a fast-growing economy but one that, when measured by the more meaningful metric of purchasing power, is already a global economic heavyweight. This internal strength, driven by domestic demand and rising purchasing power, is what makes the country a "bright spot" and a resilient investment destination amid global economic headwinds. Morgan Stanley's reports consistently highlight a stark contrast between India's robust economic trajectory and the slowing growth of the United States and China. India is projected to be a significant driver of global growth, while the other two face headwinds. Key Facts and Figures Growth Projections: Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant growth differential. India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with projections of 6.2% GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 and 6.5% for fiscal year 2027. In contrast, the United States is expected to see a sharp deceleration, with growth dropping to just 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026. China's growth is also projected to moderate to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Drivers of Growth: India: Its growth is primarily driven by strong domestic demand, robust private consumption, and a significant push in both public and household capital expenditure. India's large and young population is also a key factor, positioning it to become the world's most sought-after consumer market.   United States: The U.S. economy faces a slowdown largely due to new trade policies, including higher tariffs, which are expected to crimp demand and accelerate inflation. Morgan Stanley also notes that the U.S. consumer is starting to feel the pressure, with spending slowing from a sprint to a jog. China: China's economy is expected to slow due to tariffs impacting its growth by around 0.5 percentage points, along with persistent concerns about deflation.   Economic Standing: India's rising economic stature is a central theme in Morgan Stanley's analysis. The firm projects India will become the fourth-largest economy in the world by 2026, surpassing Germany, and the third-largest by 2028. This ascent is driven by its strong growth and increasing share of global output, which is expected to rise from 3.5% to 4.5% by 2029. Global Impact: Morgan Stanley's reports emphasize that India is a vital source of global economic momentum. The country is projected to contribute around 20% of global growth over the next decade, while U.S. policies are seen as a main driver of the global slowdown in 2025 and 2026. This makes India a crucial "bright spot" and a compelling investment opportunity for global investors. Morgan Stanley's recent reports paint a clear picture of the United States facing significant economic headwinds, largely self-imposed through new trade policies. The bank's analysis suggests that these policies will lead to a widespread deceleration in growth and a challenging environment for both consumers and businesses. Here's a breakdown of the key impacts on America, according to Morgan Stanley: 1. Slowing Economic Growth Decelerated GDP: Morgan Stanley has downgraded its U.S. GDP growth forecasts, projecting a significant slowdown in 2025 and 2026. The firm expects U.S. economic growth to drop to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, a substantial decline from the growth rate seen in 2024. Structural Shock: The primary cause of this deceleration is the "structural shock" to the global economy created by the new U.S. trade policy, particularly the imposition of higher tariffs. These tariffs are expected to dampen demand not only abroad but also within the U.S. as a result of increased prices and reduced purchasing power.   2. Rising Inflation and Policy Challenges Inflationary Pressure: Morgan Stanley's analysis highlights a crucial sequencing of events: tariffs tend to boost inflation before they slow growth. The firm forecasts that U.S. inflation will accelerate and reach a peak in the third quarter of 2025. This is because companies will pass on the increased costs from tariffs to consumers. Delayed Rate Cuts: In response to this inflationary pressure, Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady until March 2026. This contrasts with other major central banks, which may continue their easing cycles to combat slowing growth. The Fed's focus will likely remain on containing inflation rather than supporting employment until inflation begins to decline later in the year.   3. Impact on Consumers and Businesses Squeezed Purchasing Power: The tariffs are seen as a form of tax increase on U.S. businesses and households. This will likely lead to a squeeze on household purchasing power and raise business costs, acting as a drag on economic growth. Investment and Sentiment: The uncertainty generated by these policies is expected to depress business sentiment, which could discourage investment and hiring. Supply Chain Disruptions: The tariffs are creating ripple effects throughout global supply chains, cutting intermediate demand and potentially reducing wages or jobs in various sectors. Broader Global Context   U.S. as an Outlier: Morgan Stanley's reports position the U.S. as a global outlier. While most countries will see inflation continue to normalize and central banks may cut rates, the U.S. will face accelerating inflation and a hawkish Fed.   Eroding "U.S. Exceptionalism": The bank suggests that the "U.S. exceptionalism" of recent years, characterized by strong economic performance, may not continue. The need to absorb the shock of tariffs is likely to damage corporate profit margins and force households to dip into their savings. In short, Morgan Stanley's outlook for the U.S. is one of slowing growth and rising inflation, largely as a consequence of its own trade policies. This is in stark contrast to the more positive trajectory it predicts for India, which is seen as a key engine of global growth in a period of widespread deceleration. Negative impacts on the cryptocurrency market can come from a variety of sources, including economic factors, regulatory actions, and market-specific issues. Here's a summary of the key negative impacts based on a broad analysis. 1. Regulatory Scrutiny and Action Uncertainty and Lack of Framework: A major and persistent headwind for the crypto market is the lack of a clear, cohesive regulatory framework. Governments and central banks worldwide, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), are actively scrutinizing the industry. This creates significant uncertainty for investors and businesses, and any news or rumors of potential regulations can cause market-wide price drops. Government Crackdowns and Bans: Some countries, like China, have imposed strict bans on crypto trading and mining, which can have a ripple effect on the global market. The fear of similar actions from other major economies remains a constant risk.   Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), have expressed concerns that the widespread use of crypto assets could negatively impact a country's macroeconomic and financial stability. They worry that excessive use of crypto could reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy and divert resources away from the traditional financial system. 2. Economic Factors and Global Events Macroeconomic Headwinds: Like other risky assets, cryptocurrencies tend to perform poorly during times of economic distress. A global slowdown, rising inflation, or an economic recession can lead investors to pull out of high-risk investments like crypto and move to safer assets. Economic Factors and Global Events Macroeconomic Headwinds: Like other risky assets, cryptocurrencies tend to perform poorly during times of economic distress. A global slowdown, rising inflation, or an economic recession can lead investors to pull out of high-risk investments like crypto and move to safer assets. Central Bank Actions: Central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, can indirectly influence the crypto market. When the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation, it can make risky assets less attractive, leading to a potential decrease in crypto prices.   Market Manipulation: The crypto market is susceptible to market manipulation by influential individuals or groups. This can be a significant problem for investors, as it can lead to sudden and artificial price swings. Market-Specific and Technical Risks   Volatility and Lack of Intrinsic Value: Cryptocurrencies are known for their extreme price volatility, which can lead to significant losses for investors. Critics, like Warren Buffett, have referred to the crypto ecosystem as a bubble, as the value of many cryptocurrencies is based purely on speculation and not on an underlying commodity or cash flow.   Security Risks: The decentralized and digital nature of the crypto market makes it vulnerable to hacking, fraud, and scams. There have been numerous high-profile cases of crypto theft and hacks, leading to massive financial losses for investors and users. Scalability Issues: While a lot of progress has been made, some cryptocurrencies still face scalability issues, which can make transactions slow and expensive. This is a major hurdle for widespread adoption and can be a negative factor for the market. Lack of Consumer Protections: Unlike traditional banking and payment systems, cryptocurrency transactions generally lack legal protections. This means that if something goes wrong, such as a fraudulent transaction or a lost password, there is often no way to recover the funds.   In summary, the crypto market's negative impacts are a combination of external macroeconomic pressures and internal, market-specific risks. The ongoing struggle with regulation, coupled with the inherent volatility and security risks, makes it a high-risk investment environment.

RT @thelearningpill: DeFi isn’t just about capital - it’s about flow. But sometimes we do get stuck on one chain, isn't it? @RiverdotInc i…