Monad (mainnet arc) narxiMON

A bet on $Moncock is a bet on $MON

My favorite hobby lately Trashing 🗑 Monad every chance I get $MON it is fun though

$MON: Pullback pretty normal given the short term double top but just watching this one for now. Might buy higher but merely an observer

MON PROTOCOL: MARKET FUNDAMENTALS & TRADING OUTLOOK Latest Market Developments Recent news flow around $MON has been sharply divided: • Positive sentiment: Monad’s mainnet launch (Dec 2025) triggered an 80% surge within 24 hours, reflecting strong enthusiasm for the underlying technology. Team leadership publicly pushed back against criticism, reinforcing operational confidence. • Negative sentiment: Arthur Hayes criticized MON as a “high-FDV, low-float VC token,” warning of a potential severe drawdown. Shortly after, a $6.5M leveraged long position was liquidated, resulting in $1.9M in losses — adding pressure to short-term sentiment. This divide highlights the core dynamic: credible technology and pipeline strength versus meaningful tokenomics risk. Technical Picture MON has corrected sharply from its November 25 high of $0.0493, currently trading near $0.029–0.030. Daily chart signals: • Price is below EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 — confirming a short-term downtrend • MACD remains negative, with momentum still biased lower • RSI sits near 42, showing weakened bullish conviction • Volume has dropped from $55M to $4.6M in 48 hours — a notable sign of fading participation Key levels: • Support: $0.0279 (Fibonacci 78.6%), $0.0213–0.0214 (major support zone) • Resistance: $0.0351 and $0.0389 Intraday charts show an attempt to stabilize, but not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal. Market Flow & Liquidity Considerations The rapid decline in volume raises liquidity risk, especially for larger positions. The recent liquidation event also shows the vulnerability of leveraged positions during high-volatility phases. Funding rates remain neutral, but this does not offset the structural risk caused by low float and concentrated positions. Trading Opportunities 1. High-Risk Contrarian Long (Short-Term) A possible accumulation zone forms around $0.0265–$0.0270. A bounce toward $0.035–$0.040 becomes possible if sentiment stabilizes. A break below $0.0213 invalidates the setup. 2. Spot Accumulation (Mid-Term) Investors willing to take ecosystem-driven risk may consider gradual accumulation between $0.025–$0.030. This aligns with a 6–12 month thesis around game releases and mainnet traction. 3. Avoid Leverage The recent $1.9M liquidation demonstrates high downside asymmetry. Given liquidity and FDV concerns, leveraged futures significantly increase risk. Outlook MON sits at the intersection of strong technology and meaningful tokenomics pressure. While the current price reflects a capitulation phase, recovery depends on stabilization in volume, reduced selling pressure, and continued ecosystem traction. Short-term opportunities may emerge around key support levels, but disciplined sizing is essential. For most traders, spot exposure not leverage is the more sustainable approach.

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