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Betting on the real world: What kind of business are these 8 prediction markets doing?
Betting on the real world: What kind of business are these 8 prediction markets doing?

The real turning point for this sector lies not in the form of the product, but in the boundaries of regulation.

深潮·2025/10/20 07:06
This Week's Preview: Washington "Crypto Summit" Showdown Approaching, Will Macro "Super Friday" Ignite the Market?
This Week's Preview: Washington "Crypto Summit" Showdown Approaching, Will Macro "Super Friday" Ignite the Market?

On Monday (today), a series of data including China's GDP will set the "opening tone" for global risk assets this week. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve's "Payments Innovation" conference will test the boundaries of regulation. On Wednesday, crypto giants will "make their way" in Washington. Finally, all sentiment will culminate on Friday with the release of the U.S. "CPI+PMI" consecutive data.

MarsBit·2025/10/20 05:14
Fun Fact: The first DApp on Ethereum was a prediction market
Fun Fact: The first DApp on Ethereum was a prediction market

Initially, it was an extremely imaginative product.

ForesightNews 深度·2025/10/20 04:34
Flash
  • 07:05
    Wintermute founder: Maintain a net long position in the long term, but long positions do not exceed 25% of net assets
    BlockBeats News, on October 20, Wintermute founder and crypto market maker Evgeny Gaevoy stated during The Block’s podcast that the public generally misunderstands the company as “frequently shorting,” but in reality, Wintermute has maintained a net long position for a long time and has been bullish on the market overall since 2022 or even earlier. Gaevoy revealed that Wintermute has a venture capital division, has invested in multiple projects, and holds a large number of locked tokens, as well as core assets such as BTC, ETH, HYPE, and SOL. He emphasized that the company could not possibly dump the market intentionally, as that would harm the value of its own holdings. In terms of risk management, Wintermute has set strict limits: long positions do not exceed 25% of net assets, and funds on a single platform do not exceed 35%. Gaevoy said that this strategy enabled the company to survive the collapse of certain exchanges and multiple hacking incidents, stating, “Unless the top five trading platforms disappear at the same time, we will survive.”
  • 07:05
    "BTC OG Whale" BTC short position has an unrealized loss of over $900,000, while its associated address still holds long positions.
    BlockBeats News, on October 20, according to HyperInsight monitoring, at 3:00 a.m. today (UTC+8), an address labeled as "BTC OG Whale" (0xb31) opened a 10x short position of 700 BTC at an average price of $109,100, which is now at an unrealized loss of over $900,000, with a total position of approximately $77.27 million. It is worth noting that about 10 hours ago (UTC+8), this address deposited $30 million into HyperLiquid and opened a BTC long position. However, another address previously associated with it (0xc2a) still holds a 15x BTC and 5x ETH long position, with an unrealized profit of $3.66 million and a total position of approximately $260 million.
  • 06:58
    US Government Shutdown May Break Longest Record
    Jinse Finance reported that what was previously widely believed to be a U.S. government shutdown lasting only two to three weeks is now evolving into a major crisis in Washington and is likely to continue until November. "To end the shutdown, either the White House needs to participate in negotiations to reach an agreement, or the Democrats need to compromise. But at present, there are no signs of either," analysts at Beacon Policy Advisors stated in a report. "The current government shutdown is likely to become the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history." As of Monday, the partial government shutdown that began this month has lasted 20 days; the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days, which occurred nearly seven years ago during Trump's first presidential term. According to the prediction market Kalshi last Friday, the current shutdown may last about 41 days, whereas two weeks ago the market predicted it would last only 14 days.
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