Grayscale's Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Reach a New All-Time High in 2026?

Despite the widespread belief that 2026 may usher in a bear market, Grayscale has taken a contrarian investment approach—bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach an all-time high (ATH).

In its 2026outlook, the asset management firm predicts that growing demand for safe-haven assets (also known as devaluation trades), combined with regulatory clarity, will drive the market higher, pushing BTC even further.

"We expect bitcoin valuations to rise in 2026, coinciding with the end of the so-called 'four-year cycle.' We believe that bitcoin prices are likely to reach an all-time high in the first half of this year."

According to Grayscale, the U.S. debt issue will persist, leading to the devaluation of dollar-denominated investments and forcing market participants to seek scarce "alternative stores of value" such as gold, silver, bitcoin, or ethereum. The company added:

"As long as the risk of fiat currency devaluation continues to rise, demand for bitcoin and ethereum in portfolios may also continue to increase."

Grayscale Downplays DAT Sell-off Wave

Regarding the negative factor that a digital asset treasury (DAT) sell-off could trigger a bear market, the company downplayed this possibility. The MSCI index exclusion review was conducted before the mid-January deadline, unsettling many investors.

Currently, many market participants are concerned that Strategy may sell off its bitcoin holdings, potentially triggering a market crash.This concern stems from the possibility that MSCI may remove Strategy and other DATs from its indices.

If this occurs during a period of already compressed mNAV (net asset value of crypto assets)—that is, when the relative value of crypto holdings compared to corporate assets declines—market pressure could intensify.

However, Grayscale pointed out that most DATs are not highly leveraged, which is insufficient to trigger liquidations and sell-offs. The company added:

"These instruments may become a permanent feature in the crypto investment space, but are unlikely to be a major source of new token demand in 2026, nor are they likely to be a primary source of selling pressure."

Interestingly, Bitwise has also expressed a similarly optimistic view as Grayscale.In a memo, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that institutional capital and regulatory clarity will drive bitcoin prices higher in 2026.

Even so, Deribit's options market positions are currently still at low levels.It is recommendedto act cautiously and adopt extreme hedging strategies in the first half of 2026.

The 25-Delta Skew is negative for 2-month, 3-month, and 6-month terms, revealing bearish market sentiment.

Whether the traditional four-year cycle will be broken remains to be seen. Another question is whether DATs will further disrupt the market through forced liquidations.

Meanwhile, bitcoin is trading at $86,000, entering a week characterized by significant macroeconomic data updates.

Final Thoughts

• Grayscale predicts that the passage of the crypto market structure bill and devaluation trades will push bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
• Although the asset management firm has downplayed the DAT sell-off wave led by Strategy, the market remains cautious.