Event Review 🔥
Since 23:20, the ETH market has experienced a wave of intense volatility. In just 15 minutes, the price plummeted from $2,800 to $2,736. Subsequently, between 23:20 and 23:43, it continued to decline from $2,746 to $2,718. The market revealed the risk of internal leveraged positions reaching forced liquidation, while external macroeconomic indicators remained sluggish and regulatory policy uncertainty intensified. This dual pressure from both inside and outside led to heightened investor panic and a surge in selling sentiment.
Timeline ⏰
- 23:20 – ETH price triggered the first round of sharp decline, dropping from $2,800 to $2,736 (a decrease of about 2.29%), with some leveraged long positions hitting the forced liquidation line, intensifying selling pressure.
- 23:20 to 23:43 – The price continued to fall from $2,746 to $2,718, as the market endured heavy selling pressure under regulatory uncertainty and weak macro data.
- 23:55 – A key support level was breached, and market data showed ETH had fallen below the critical $2,800 range, currently trading around $2,743, with the effect of long position liquidations continuing to ferment.
- 00:03 – After a brief period of consolidation, the ETH price rebounded to $2,742.15, but the overall market remained in a state of high selling pressure and risk aversion.
Reason Analysis 🔍
1. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Uncertainty
Recent data such as the continued contraction of US manufacturing and the decline in the ISM index indicate a weakening momentum in overall economic growth. Coupled with internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of rate cuts and policy communication, these factors have collectively triggered risk-off sentiment in the market. At the same time, multiple countries have strengthened regulation of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, with a surge in enforcement requests from relevant agencies, shaking investor confidence in high-risk assets.
2. Leverage Position Risk and Forced Liquidation Effect
On-chain data shows that a large number of leveraged long positions in the market are close to forced liquidation levels. Some well-known accounts have been forced to add margin or liquidate due to position losses, creating a chain reaction of liquidations. This technical selling further drove prices down and intensified market turmoil, becoming a key trigger for the sharp drop in ETH prices during this round.
Technical Analysis 📊
Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data, we found:
- Trading Volume Surge: Trading volume soared by 151.88%, and the current volume-to-price ratio is significantly higher than the historical average, indicating exceptionally active market trading.
- Moving Average Trends: The price is below the MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50 moving averages, with the moving averages overall in a bearish alignment; both short-term and long-term average volumes are declining, indicating that the downtrend is dominant.
- EMA System: EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 are all in a downward channel, with EMA20 showing a steep slope (about -1.04%), reflecting strong downward momentum.
- Oversold Indicator: The RSI is currently in the oversold region, suggesting a possible short-term local rebound, but the overall downtrend has not yet reversed.
- On-chain Data: In the past hour, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached $10 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 88%, reinforcing the current bearish sentiment in the market.
Market Outlook 🚀
After experiencing intense volatility, ETH may enter a period of consolidation in the short term, with local rebound signals yet to be observed. Looking ahead:
- If macroeconomic sentiment fails to improve and the regulatory environment continues to tighten, risk-off sentiment may intensify, pushing ETH further downward.
- The liquidation effect of leveraged positions may trigger a chain reaction, so investors should pay attention to the performance of key support levels (such as around $2,800).
- In terms of technical indicators, although the RSI is in the oversold region and a short-term rebound may occur, the bearish alignment of the moving average system suggests that the overall trend remains weak.
Overall, the current intertwining of internal leverage risks and external macro and regulatory predicaments has led to sharp fluctuations in ETH prices. In this context, investors need to remain highly vigilant, implement strict risk controls, closely monitor reversal signals during price corrections, and cautiously adjust positions and strategies to cope with potential further market declines or local rebound opportunities.
