Matrixport Market Watch: Seeking Support Under Pressure, Crypto Market Enters a Critical Observation Period

In the past two weeks, the crypto market has seen a significant correction, driven by a combination of macro, policy, regulatory, and industry-specific deleveraging factors. U.S. economic data remains resilient, inflation is falling less than expected, and the room for interest rate cuts this year continues to narrow. The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from over 80% at the beginning of the month to about 50%, with high interest rates putting pressure on risk asset valuations. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials have sent hawkish signals, further reinforcing market expectations of "higher rates for longer." Coupled with slow progress in crypto ETF approvals and uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions, risk aversion in the market has clearly intensified.

BTC and ETH Deep Correction, Industry Deleveraging Accelerates

Within the industry, the deleveraging process has clearly accelerated. Rumors of "whale sell-offs" combined with concentrated liquidations of high-leverage long positions have amplified the short-term decline. The resonance of tightening macro conditions and structural industry shakeouts has become a key driver of the market's rapid cooling in this round.

As of November 24, Bitcoin was trading at around $87,000 and Ethereum at about $2,800. Over the past month, Bitcoin has steadily declined from above $100,000 in late October, with a cumulative monthly correction of about 20%, at one point dropping to around $81,600. Ethereum fell from a high near $3,500, breaking below the $3,000 mark, with a monthly decline of about 15%–20%.
Technically, the daily RSI for both BTC and ETH entered oversold territory, and sentiment indicators fell to "extreme fear" levels, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been largely released.

Stablecoin Capital Flows: Outflows Slow, Approaching a Stage of Stabilization

On-chain capital data shows that the total market cap of stablecoins saw a net outflow of about $3 billion in the two weeks of mid-November, with redemption pressure particularly evident for USDC, while USDT remained relatively stable. The outflow of stablecoins reflects a phase of market caution, but since late November, the scale of net outflows has clearly slowed, showing initial signs of stabilization. Historically, cyclical market bottoms are often accompanied by a halt in stablecoin supply declines, making this signal worth continued attention.

Rising Risk in the Derivatives Market: Key Price Level Volatility May Be Amplified

The derivatives market is also reflecting increased uncertainty. Short-term option implied volatility has quickly risen from October lows to annual highs. In terms of open interest distribution, there are still a large number of $80,000 put options outstanding at the end of November, while a significant number of $125,000 call options have accumulated for the end of December. This has significantly amplified Gamma exposure near these price levels, meaning that if prices approach key strike levels, short-term volatility may be further magnified.

Structural Sectors Remain Resilient: Medium- to Long-Term Value Persists

Among structural sectors, RWA, Solana ecosystem, and Ethereum Layer2 have all corrected along with the broader market, but their fundamentals have not substantially deteriorated. The RWA sector continues to see growth in on-chain scale and institutional participation this year; Solana's on-chain activity remains on the rise; and Ethereum L2 total value locked continues to expand throughout the year, indicating that structural opportunities still exist.

Allocation Advice: Balancing Offense and Defense Amid Uncertainty

For investors who believe the market has entered a value range and wish to gradually buy in to average down costs, it is suitable to purchase Accumulator (discounted accumulation) products. For those concerned about further market declines and seeking to preserve principal while earning stable returns, daily dual-currency (reverse) products can be considered to achieve high yields while holding stablecoins. As the market enters a critical turning point, investors are advised to adjust their strategies according to their own risk preferences: aggressive investors can use accumulation products to build positions in core assets at low levels and capture rebound gains; conservative investors should focus on capital preservation and incremental gains, using dual-currency and coupon-type products for certain returns, and gradually reduce positions if necessary. Matrixport's series of structured products allow investors to flexibly use options strategies in a bear market, achieving a balance between offense and defense.

 

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.