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Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces the $80K Threshold: Stronghold for Bulls or Tipping Point for Bears?

Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces the $80K Threshold: Stronghold for Bulls or Tipping Point for Bears?

Bitget-RWA2025/11/24 20:36
By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin's $80,000 level sparks debate as analysts split between bullish reversal signals and bearish continuation risks. - Technical models cite historical capitulation patterns with 91% BTC recovery probability, while macro liquidity shifts hint at post-QT support. - Contrarian views highlight $80K put options dominance ($2B) and "max pain" risks below this level, contrasting with onchain resilience metrics. - Market uncertainty persists as BlackRock ETF outflows and leveraged position warnings clash wi

Bitcoin's recent slide to $80,000 has ignited intense discussion among market experts regarding whether this price point represents a significant bottom for the digital asset. Analysts are divided, weighing technical signals, macroeconomic trends, and overall market sentiment to determine if the $80,000–$85,000 zone will serve as a support level or if it could trigger further declines.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are currently experiencing one of the most rapid capitulation phases since late 2022, though one market observer claims that historical patterns support $80,000 as a bottom. Astronomer, a

analyst, referenced a capitulation-volume framework that highlights three straight weeks of high-volume red candles as a signal for major trend reversals. Reviewing 11 past occurrences, this setup led to a new upward trend eight times, while only once did it result in a prolonged downturn. According to this model, there is a from current levels, a 99% probability of reaching $112,000, and a 75% chance for the broader bull market to continue.

Optimism is also being fueled by macroeconomic liquidity indicators. Arthur Hayes, BitMEX's co-founder, pointed out that the approaching conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, along with increasing U.S. bank lending, could create a “rising-tide effect” for cryptocurrencies. “We might dip below $90K, possibly touch the low $80Ks, but $80K should hold,” Hayes stated,

will be the main driver of the next upward move. This perspective is supported by onchain metrics following a record net realized loss since the FTX collapse, implying that excess supply has been cleared from the market.

Yet, not every analyst is optimistic. Fefe Demenyi, a crypto strategist who previously cautioned against buying

at $120,000, now views the current price as a buying opportunity. His methodology, which pinpointed the end of the bull run in October, has supported his bearish outlook as BTC dropped 21% from those peaks. On November 23, he changed his view, telling his audience, “This is your time. Buy now,” marking a shift from selling driven by excitement to accumulation driven by pessimism .

Market statistics add further layers to the story. The Bitcoin options market is heavily weighted with $80,000 put options, totaling $2 billion in open interest,

. At the same time, analysts caution that if BTC drops below $80,000, a “max pain” scenario could unfold, and pushing prices down toward $60,000. to exchanges at a loss, with inflows on November 22 reaching $81,000—the highest since mid-July.

Despite these dangers, some believe the current capitulation resembles previous market bottoms.

have historically led to 35% price rallies before broader declines, while others note that steady spot buying is helping to stabilize the market. The NVT golden cross, now at -1.6, also points to undervaluation and possible short-term mean reversion, though leveraged trades are not recommended .

This ongoing debate highlights the uncertainty around BTC’s future direction. While improved liquidity and resilient onchain data provide reasons for optimism, macroeconomic instability and institutional withdrawals—such as BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF

—underscore persistent risks. As the market contends with mixed signals, the $80,000 mark remains a crucial battleground for both bullish and bearish traders.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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