Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin at a Turning Point: Is This a Bear Market or Just a Mid-Cycle Pause?

The latest movements in Bitcoin's price have ignited discussions about whether the market is shifting into a bearish trend or simply pausing in the middle of its cycle. As of Tuesday, the cryptocurrency is trading above $105,000, but faces significant technical and on-chain indicators that may shape its short-term direction. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, cautioned that a fall below $94,000 would signal the start of a bear market, while

that the current decline is reminiscent of previous mid-cycle pullbacks.

Both institutional and retail appetite for

and alternative cryptocurrencies such as and has diminished, with ongoing outflows from spot ETFs highlighting reduced investor interest. Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.15 million in new investments on Monday, a modest figure compared to the $1.22 billion and $799 million withdrawn over the previous two weeks. Retail participation is also weak, from a high of $94.12 billion last October.

Bearish sentiment has grown stronger due to significant selling by long-term investors, often referred to as "whales." In the last month, these holders have sold 815,000 BTC,

. This wave of selling has pushed Bitcoin below important technical markers, including the 365-day moving average near $102,000 . CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index has , indicating a dramatic change in market outlook.

Despite these challenges, some experts believe stabilization is possible. Bitfinex pointed out that 72% of Bitcoin's supply is still profitable, which could support a mid-cycle consolidation. The company

to those in June 2024 and February 2025, both of which saw recoveries after about a 22% drop from record highs. Meanwhile, inflows into ETFs have so far balanced out whale selling, as of November 10.

Nevertheless, the market's vulnerability is clear from the increase in short positions and negative funding rates.

to 0.0007% on Tuesday, reflecting a stronger bearish sentiment. For Bitcoin, the future will depend on whether demand from institutions and individual investors can pick up again. that if ETF purchases slow, sellers may take control of the market.

Technical signals point to potential further declines. Bitcoin needs to move back above $102,000 to avoid a steeper drop, with the next major support at $94,000.

, a sell-off down to $819 could occur, according to on-chain data. The wider crypto market is also feeling the strain, in transaction activity and Ethereum ETFs posted no net inflows on Monday.

With the U.S. government shutdown close to being resolved, uncertainty in the broader economy remains a significant factor.

, which could impact Federal Reserve decisions and, consequently, risk assets. For now, Bitcoin's outlook is closely linked to the balance between whale selling, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic trends—a combination that will shape its path through 2025.