U.S. and China Reach Rare Earth Agreement: One Year of Stability Despite Ongoing Competition

On October 30, 2025, China revealed it would pause the implementation of new export restrictions on rare earth minerals for a period of one year, signaling a notable easing of trade frictions between the U.S. and China after a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as reported by

. According to a White House summary, the plan involves issuing broad licenses for the export of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite, aiming to support American industries and global supply networks, as detailed in . This action essentially rolls back the export limits China had put in place in April 2025 and October 2022, which had previously sparked concerns in Washington about China’s stronghold in the rare earths market.

The arrangement also includes China ceasing its investigations into U.S. semiconductor companies, such as antitrust and anti-dumping cases against firms like

. In exchange, the Trump administration agreed to prolong the suspension of "reciprocal" tariffs on Chinese products for another year and dropped plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports that was scheduled for November. Despite this, the agreement is largely viewed as a short-term pause, with most terms set to expire in a year and ongoing disputes over technology, Taiwan, and broader geopolitical issues still unresolved.

China’s dominance in rare earths—responsible for 90% of global refining and 70% of mining—has long served as a strategic tool, according to

. Experts warn that this one-year suspension does not diminish Beijing’s entrenched grip on the supply chain, which is supported by low production expenses, advanced processing technology, and the lack of practical alternatives for manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe. “Delaying export controls for a year won’t change the underlying reality of China’s resource control,” said rare earths specialist David S. Abraham in , emphasizing that the deal merely gives Western countries more time to develop their own supply options.

Market responses to the agreement were varied. Shares of U.S. rare earth companies such as

and surged in pre-market trading, reflecting optimism about reduced trade friction. Nevertheless, Fitch’s BMI cautioned that China’s strategic advantage in rare earths—vital for electric vehicles, defense, and renewable energy—remains intact for the foreseeable future. China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed the lifting of export curbs and also pledged to resume major soybean imports from the U.S. while suspending retaliatory tariffs.

At the same time, the U.S. government has ramped up investment in domestic rare earth production. For example, the Department of Defense entered a $400 million equity agreement with MP Materials to support a magnet manufacturing plant, including a price guarantee for neodymium-praseodymium, a crucial magnet component, as reported by

. These initiatives are intended to lessen dependence on China, though experts point out that expanding global supply chains will be a lengthy process.

Although the Trump-Xi deal provides short-term relief, it highlights the underlying instability in U.S.-China economic ties. Both countries have achieved important concessions—Washington’s tariff reductions and Beijing’s export relaxations—but the lack of a lasting solution means tensions could easily resurface. As analysts have observed, the effective lifting of controls may bring temporary market stability, but China’s overwhelming role in rare earth mining and processing continues to give it significant influence.