Partisan Stalemate Intensifies: 20% Likelihood of Resolving 35-Day Government Closure

As of now, the likelihood that the U.S. government shutdown will conclude between November 4 and 7 has dropped to 20% on

, highlighting the ongoing legislative stalemate as the shutdown stretches into its 35th day, making it the longest in recent memory. The deadlock, fueled by disagreements over healthcare subsidy funding and broader budget talks, has interrupted vital government operations such as food aid programs and the release of economic statistics, according to . With both the Federal Reserve and lawmakers keeping a close eye on the consequences, the extended shutdown is adding pressure to an already vulnerable economy.

This impasse has resulted in a government closure lasting 35 days, equaling the 2018–19 shutdown during President Donald Trump’s administration, Reuters noted. Senate Republicans, who hold a slim 53–47 majority, have not managed to gain enough support from Democrats for a temporary funding measure, as Democrats insist on prolonging healthcare subsidies for low-income citizens, Reuters further reported. Federal employees, including those in law enforcement and the military, have not received pay, and essential services like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are experiencing partial interruptions, Reuters stated. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which will officially declare the end of the shutdown, has seen its operational status page become a key reference point for updates on Polymarket.

The economic impact continues to grow, with postponed data releases, as seen on

, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to evaluate inflation trends and the state of the labor market. Important metrics, such as job reports and manufacturing indexes, may be delayed or canceled because of the shutdown. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has urged caution regarding interest rate reductions, stressing the delicate balance between managing inflation and maintaining employment, according to . Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown has already cost the economy $7 billion, with potential losses reaching $14 billion if it continues past eight weeks, as reported by .

The shutdown has also affected international media, with Radio Free Asia (RFA) halting news production and broadcasts due to funding shortages, according to

. RFA, which is funded by the U.S. and targets audiences in restricted Asian countries, has become another victim of the political impasse, raising questions about America’s dedication to global press freedom, the Shiawaves article added. Within the U.S., small businesses and contractors are under financial pressure, with 65,500 companies at risk of missing out on $12 billion in payments, according to Economic Times analysis.

Prediction platforms like Polymarket continue to reflect public expectations, though they are now under increased regulatory examination. Romania’s National Office for Gambling has recently banned Polymarket, labeling its activities as unauthorized "counterparty betting," as reported by

. The agency cited rising activity in political betting markets, including those related to Romanian elections. Despite facing similar restrictions in France and the U.S., Polymarket—valued at $9 billion after a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange—remains active in major markets.

With the November 4–7 period approaching, the chance of a resolution remains slim at 20%, while traders are increasingly betting on later dates (33% for November 8–11 and 33.4% for November 16 and beyond), according to the Polymarket event. Political experts say the end of the shutdown depends on whether Democrats and Republicans can bridge their differences, but current trends suggest a quick agreement is unlikely, Reuters analysts caution. The ongoing dysfunction is taking a growing toll on the economy and society, and some experts warn that a recession could follow if confidence continues to decline, as highlighted in the Economic Times report.