U.S.-China Trade Agreement Excludes Taiwan, Failing to Address Ongoing Strategic Frictions

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping gave him a personal assurance that China would refrain from using military force against Taiwan during Trump’s presidency. This commitment has eased some immediate anxieties in Taipei, though it leaves larger strategic questions unresolved. Trump revealed this assurance in a 60 Minutes interview, explaining that Xi and his officials "clearly expressed" their intention to avoid military escalation as long as Trump is in office, referencing their shared understanding of the "potential consequences" of such actions in

. The leaders’ discussions in South Korea focused on trade and efforts to combat fentanyl, intentionally steering clear of the Taiwan topic, which Trump confirmed "was never discussed," according to .

Leaving Taiwan off the agenda reflects Trump’s two-pronged strategy with China: pursuing economic gains while steering away from direct confrontation. As reported by the Times of India, the U.S. agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47% and to relax rare earth export controls, while China pledged to buy more American soybeans and take steps to reduce fentanyl output. These trade moves, along with Trump’s announcement of a planned April trip to China, suggest a shift toward easing tensions after years of disputes. Still, the lack of a definitive American position on Taiwan has prompted caution among analysts and Taiwanese leaders.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung voiced strong faith in the U.S.-Taiwan partnership, referencing the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances as lasting foundations, as highlighted in

. President William Lai echoed this determination, firmly rejecting Beijing’s "one country, two systems" proposal and pledging to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy, according to . Nevertheless, China has maintained its stance of not ruling out force, with Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Peng Qing'en stating that "all necessary options" are still available, as reported by Mothership.

The American approach to Taiwan remains one of strategic ambiguity, a policy both sides have upheld to discourage Chinese aggression without directly provoking conflict. When questioned about whether he would send U.S. troops to defend Taiwan, Trump sidestepped the issue, saying, "You'll find out if it happens," during his 60 Minutes appearance. This ambiguous response stands in contrast to China’s ongoing military exercises near Taiwan and its diplomatic campaign for reunification.

At present, the Trump-Xi dialogue seems to have prevented an immediate escalation. However, as China intensifies its pressure and Taiwan aims to increase its defense budget to 5% of GDP by 2030, the durability of the current balance remains in doubt, according to observers cited by Mothership. With Trump’s potential re-election and possible shifts in U.S. policy on the horizon, Taipei’s trust in American backing will face significant tests in the near future.