XTZ has dropped 56.21% so far this year as the overall market experiences a decline

As of October 30, 2025, XTZ slipped by 0.25% over the past day, settling at $0.5645 and continuing its downward momentum. Over the last week, XTZ declined by 7.06%, and over the past month, it dropped by 15.74%. The most significant loss occurred in the previous year, with XTZ plummeting 56.21%, highlighting ongoing market challenges and limited short-term buying interest.

This price movement highlights persistent bearishness surrounding the token, with negative trends evident across all observed periods. While daily fluctuations may be typical market noise, the more substantial weekly and monthly losses point to a deeper negative sentiment among investors. Such patterns are common in assets facing both broader economic pressures and internal setbacks, such as project delays or missed milestones.

Technical signals have also weakened. The RSI has reached oversold territory, which might indicate a possible rebound; however, without a notable rise in trading volume or a breakout above important resistance points, the chance for a lasting recovery appears slim. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending lower, and the price remains below the 50-day average—a bullish indicator that has not yet been achieved.

Traders are paying close attention to the $0.54 support level, which is seen as a crucial point. If this level fails to hold, it could lead to additional losses. A further drop may also challenge the psychological $0.50 mark, potentially sparking wider sell-offs among altcoins that have

shown strong fundamentals or demand based on real-world use cases.

Considering the current technical picture and historical price action, employing a backtesting method could shed light on how similar assets have performed under comparable market conditions. This analysis may help identify possible support and resistance zones, as well as inform entry and exit decisions.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate how XTZ might behave, a backtesting model can be set up using the 56.21% decline over the past year as a benchmark. This figure is similar to drops seen in certain stocks during comparable downturns.

For this backtest, the focus remains on the asset with a trailing 12-month loss of 56.21%. The event is defined as a one-time occurrence at the end of the period, rather than a repeating event. This method isolates the asset’s actions at its lowest point, providing a historical snapshot of its response.

The analysis will concentrate on two main aspects: how the price reacts after the event and the accompanying volume trends. By spotting recurring behaviors after such declines, the strategy can be adjusted to capture potential rebounds. The findings will indicate whether XTZ has historically exhibited similar movements and if these suggest a short-term bottom or the start of a prolonged downtrend.