Bitcoin Updates Today: A New Wave of Whales Brings Volatility to the Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin’s latest price movements have highlighted increasing instability within the crypto sector, as the coin struggles to regain essential on-chain support. Experts caution that if Bitcoin fails to maintain a position above the $113,000 short-term holder (STH) cost basis—a crucial level for bullish sentiment—it could prompt a sharper decline toward $88,000, which represents the realized price for active traders, according to a

. This figure, which indicates the average acquisition cost of coins currently in circulation, has often signaled the onset of more pronounced bearish trends in previous market cycles, based on a .

The STH cost basis has emerged as a key point of contention between bullish and bearish traders. In the last two weeks,

has been unable to close its weekly candles above $113,000, reflecting declining interest and weakening confidence among short-term participants, as reported by . These short-term investors, often seen as a gauge for overall market mood, are now selling at a loss. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) currently reads –0.05, indicating a modest loss compared to the more severe downturns of previous corrections, according to a . At the same time, long-term holders (LTHs) are continuing to sell, with net outflows reaching –104,000 BTC this month—the largest since July, as highlighted in the CoinDesk report. This ongoing selling from experienced investors has increased resistance at higher price points, limiting upward movement.

Although the derivatives market is less turbulent than it was during October’s swings, it remains highly responsive to broader economic developments. Realized volatility has fallen to 43%, and traders have scaled back on protective downside bets, with the one-week options skew returning to a more balanced state, as per Glassnode’s findings. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming policy announcement remains a significant uncertainty. Should the Fed take a dovish stance, market calm could persist, but a hawkish move—such as a smaller rate cut than anticipated—might spark renewed volatility and drive demand for downside protection, according to a

.

Further complicating the outlook, a generational turnover among Bitcoin’s largest holders is altering market behavior. Newly emerged whales—those who have acquired over 1,000 BTC in recent months—now account for 45% of the Whale Realized Cap, a notable shift from earlier groups who bought at lower prices and are still sitting on gains, according to a

. The average cost for this new cohort is $112,788, but with Bitcoin trading below this mark, they are facing losses for the first time in over a year. Analysts warn that these less experienced holders may be more prone to emotional reactions if prices fall further, potentially increasing volatility.

Bitcoin’s future direction depends on whether long-term holders move from selling to accumulating—a necessary step for a lasting rebound, according to Glassnode’s research. Until that shift occurs, the asset remains susceptible to additional selling, especially as on-chain indicators point to a market in a phase of adjustment and consolidation. While $88,000 could serve as a support level, the overall trend will be shaped by renewed investor confidence and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions.