All eyes are on Washington today as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest policy decision, with crypto investors watching closely for clues on where digital assets head next. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its statement today, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, a move that could boost risk assets by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging fresh liquidity into equities and crypto.
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Yet traders remain divided over whether this decision will ignite a long-awaited bull run or merely extend a slow, transitional phase in the digital asset market.
Mixed Signals in the Crypto Scene
Crypto trader Moustache highlighted that the six-year trendline on the TOTAL3 chart “holds like a boss,” with the 2021 all-time high now serving as strong support.
From his perspective, altcoins look bullish from a long-term, macro standpoint, though patience remains key.
Not everyone shares that optimism. Trader Alex Wacy warned that the Altseason Index has dropped “below FTX crash levels,” suggesting the market sits at an inflection point.
“This could either lead to generational wealth — or we’re cooked. Nothing in between,” he wrote, capturing the polarized mood hanging over traders ahead of the Fed’s move.
Adding to the uncertainty, Merlijn The Trader described Bitcoin as “trading in the kill zone,” noting that support remains firm around $107,000 while resistance is stacked at $116,000.
According to him, this is the stage where “whales trap retail before detonating the next $10K move,” implying that the market could be setting up for a sharp, manipulative swing.
Market data reflects that tension. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index hovers around 27 out of 100, a level typically associated with a “Bitcoin season,” where BTC outperforms smaller tokens and altcoins struggle to attract capital.
Despite that, the market recently saw its largest liquidation event in months, wiping out more than $19 billion in positions.
It has been over 1,000 days or roughly 2.7 years since Bitcoin’s last market bottom, signaling that the current cycle is well advanced and potentially approaching its peak. Historically, BTC tends to reach or near its cycle top around this stage, as the typical Bitcoin cycle spans about four years.
Why This Matters
The FOMC’s decision could inject short-term optimism into the crypto space, but today’s market looks more like a phase of structural transition than the explosive start of a new bull cycle. Bitcoin’s cycle is mature, altcoins are struggling for momentum, and sentiment remains cautious.
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People Also Ask:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets U.S. interest rates and monetary policy. Changes in rates affect borrowing costs and liquidity, which can influence investor appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin cycles typically last about four years. With over 1,000 days since the last market bottom, the current cycle is advanced, meaning volatility may increase and altcoin momentum may weaken.
This term describes a market phase where BTC trades within a tight range, often with high volatility and risk of traps set by large holders (whales). Traders need caution during these periods.
