Bitcoin News Today: Has Bitcoin's Drop Signaled the Beginning of a Bear Market or Is It Poised for a Recovery?

Bitcoin’s sharp decline has led traders to adopt more defensive strategies, with on-chain analytics provider Glassnode cautioning that the market is currently unstable amid a significant sell-off. The cryptocurrency dropped below $105,000 on October 17, reaching its lowest point in four months and wiping out $600 billion in total crypto market capitalization in just over a week. Experts are now discussing whether this signals the beginning of an extended bear phase or simply a short-term pullback before a possible recovery.

The downturn, which started with a sudden crash on October 10, has revived concerns about another crypto winter. John Glover, Ledn’s chief investment officer, told Forbes that the bullish cycle has ended and expects a bear market to persist until late 2026. “The five-wave rally has concluded, and we’re now entering a bearish phase that could push

down to the $70,000–$80,000 range,” he stated. This view is consistent with Glassnode’s findings, which observed that the recent drop eliminated weak hands and excessive leverage, but the market is still exposed to further losses.

Despite the negative sentiment, blockchain data points to some underlying strength. Glassnode highlighted that smaller Bitcoin investors (holding 1–1,000 BTC) have been accumulating since early October, even as the price slipped from $118,000 to $108,000. Their Trend Accumulation Score reflects renewed optimism among retail and mid-tier wallets, while major holders have paused selling. At the same time, the MVRV Z-Score—a tool comparing market value to realized value—remains near 2.15, a historically neutral level that typically signals accumulation rather than market exuberance.

Still, technical signals are largely negative. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is currently at $107,500, and a drop below this threshold could lead to a test of the $100,000 support area. David Siemer from Wave Digital Assets acknowledged the downside risk but maintained a cautiously hopeful outlook, citing possible triggers such as a shift in Federal Reserve policy or clearer regulations. “A volatile recovery could occur in the fourth quarter, with leadership from Bitcoin and

,” he commented.

The market’s instability is highlighted by mixed signals. While Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows for four straight days, factors like institutional participation and broader economic trends may help stabilize prices. Omkar Godbole from Coindesk pointed out that Bitcoin is now at its most oversold level against gold in three years, with the 14-day RSI at 22.20. This divergence between Bitcoin and gold—a traditional safe haven—has sparked debate over which asset is better suited for uncertain times.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s former CEO, wrote in a blog post that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle is becoming less relevant due to growing institutional interest and central bank actions. “The old pattern of volatility and bear markets every four years is fading,” he wrote. Nevertheless, historical trends suggest caution is warranted. Since 2014, Bitcoin has seen multiple drops exceeding 50%, with the largest averaging around 80%.

As the market processes these conflicting perspectives, traders are monitoring crucial price levels. A sustained move above $116,000 could support the accumulation thesis, but if Bitcoin fails to hold the $107,000–$110,000 support range, the decline may intensify. Glassnode’s analysis of the 0.85 cost-basis band—a key psychological marker—adds further uncertainty. “If buyers defend this area, momentum could return; if not, the market may revisit lower levels,” the firm posted.

With macroeconomic threats—including U.S. debt issues and potential trade conflicts—on the horizon, the outlook remains uncertain. Investors are encouraged to use defensive tactics, such as dollar-cost averaging and keeping positions small enough to withstand a 50% drop. As one analyst remarked, “Bitcoin bent but didn’t break during the flash crash, but the real test is whether this time is truly different.”