Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Eyes $100K Milestone: Weighing Macro Threats Against Technical Rebound Prospects in Crucial October

Bitcoin Targets CME Gap Closure as Price Drops 2.5%, Sparking $100K Crash Concerns

Bitcoin has achieved a significant technical event by closing a weekly CME futures gap between $109,680 and $111,310—a setup last seen before a major rally in 2024. This development has sparked renewed discussion among traders about whether it could signal a trend reversal similar to late 2024, when

jumped from $68,785 to $108,000 after a comparable gap closure. RektCapital analysts have identified a bullish divergence on the daily charts, hinting at a possible move toward $130,000 before the year concludes [1].

Despite this, market confidence remains shaky. Cryptocurrency traders are expressing fatigue and skepticism, with major chat groups described as "ghost towns" following a 2.66% weekly drop. This week, Binance’s funding rate turned negative—a rare event often associated with market bottoms—while on-chain data reveals significant spot exchange outflows, suggesting quiet accumulation during heightened fear [1]. Meanwhile, gold has far outperformed BTC since March, rising 28.12% compared to Bitcoin’s 4.42% decline. Some analysts believe that

tends to take over from gold once the latter’s rally becomes overextended, a scenario that could play out as gold’s RSI reaches 92, its highest on record [1].

Broader economic factors add complexity to the situation. CME data indicates a 96.7% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, which could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. However, ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes and the threat of a prolonged government shutdown may counteract these positives. Farzam Ehsani from VALR points to increasing correlation between Bitcoin and gold as safe havens amid fiscal instability, but cautions that renewed trade tensions could

Bitcoin’s strength [1].

Technical signals remain mixed. Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands have widened to unprecedented levels, a pattern historically linked to price increases. Yet, the cryptocurrency is currently hovering near a crucial $110,990–$111,355 CME gap, which some experts believe could serve as a short-term resistance before any recovery. Should BTC close below $110,000, FXStreet analysts warn it may prompt a further decline toward $100,000 [4].

Institutional interest is another important factor. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $902.5 million in outflows, ending a four-week streak of inflows. Nevertheless, exchange reserves have dropped to 2.3 million BTC—the lowest since July 2018—implying less selling pressure and the potential for a bullish scenario driven by scarcity [4]. On the other hand, CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole cautions that Bitcoin’s repeated inability to stay above a key trendline from the 2017 and 2021 highs signals a bearish outlook, with the possibility of prices falling below $100K [7].

The future direction depends on several triggers. Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations or a Fed rate cut could revive bullish sentiment, while ongoing macroeconomic challenges or regulatory issues might prolong the decline. At present, Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture, with technical indicators, economic trends, and market sentiment all suggesting that October could be a decisive month for the leading cryptocurrency.