HBAR Price May Fail Breakout As Bitcoin Correlation Falls To 2-Month Low

Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is struggling to maintain momentum after a recent rebound failed to generate meaningful gains. 

Despite briefly attempting to break out of its downward pattern, weakening market conditions and its fading correlation with Bitcoin have raised concerns that the recovery may not hold.

Hedera Is Pulling Away From Bitcoin

HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin has slipped to 0.48, its lowest point in two months. This weakening connection signals that the altcoin is beginning to move independently from Bitcoin’s price action.

While independence can occasionally spark unique rallies, it often leaves smaller assets more vulnerable during volatile periods.

This divergence could hurt HBAR’s near-term outlook, especially as Bitcoin trades near $122,000 and inches closer to its all-time high.

Historically, altcoins have benefited from Bitcoin-led rallies, but a decoupling at this critical stage could mean HBAR misses out on the broader market upside.

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HBAR Correlation To Bitcoin. Source:  TradingView

On the technical front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to stay above the neutral 50.0 mark.

A sustained rise past this level would indicate building bullish strength, but HBAR has so far failed to establish it as support. This shows lingering uncertainty among traders.

If the RSI drops further, it would push HBAR into bearish territory and limit any potential recovery attempts. The lack of strong buying momentum suggests that investors are hesitant to re-enter the market.

HBAR RSI. Source:  TradingView

HBAR Price May Pull Back

HBAR is trading at $0.220 at the time of writing, hovering just above the $0.219 support. The token recently attempted to break out of a descending wedge pattern.

However, it has struggled to sustain its upward momentum, leaving the breakout uncertain.

If bearish pressure intensifies, the failed breakout could lead HBAR to drop toward $0.206, testing the lower trend line as support. Such a decline would confirm a continuation of the current downtrend and extend the consolidation phase for the altcoin.

HBAR Price Analysis. Source:  TradingView

However, if bullish sentiment returns, HBAR could bounce off the $0.219 level and rally toward $0.230.

A move past this resistance would confirm a successful breakout, potentially pushing the price further to $0.242 and invalidating the bearish outlook.