CITIC Securities: The Possibility of a Rebound in U.S. Treasury Yields Is Low

Jinse Finance reported that a research report from CSC Financial pointed out that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rebounded to the 4.2% level. The report believes that the risk of US Treasuries is significantly lower than last year, and short-term yields may rebound, but the year-end center is still expected to fall back to 4% or even lower, so it is possible to wait for an opportunity to enter. The sharp declines in US Treasuries in Q4 last year and Q2 this year were both caused by shocks from Trump, but the transmission paths were different: after last year's rate cut, the main reason was the suppression of rate cut expectations; after this year's tariffs, the main reason was the revaluation of term premiums. Currently, with trade easing and rate cuts restarting, the risks of declining credibility and a pause in easing are both relatively small. The overall environment for US Treasuries is better than before, and a significant rebound in the yield center is not expected.