Griffin Cautions Trump: Inflation from Tariffs May Jeopardize Republican Chances in Upcoming Election

Ken Griffin, who leads Citadel, has delivered a warning to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, stressing that an inflation rate of 3% could continue to weigh heavily on American families. The billionaire investor and major GOP supporter pointed out that although inflation has dropped from its 2022 high of 9% to 2.9% in the most recent CPI data, it still sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Griffin expects inflation to persist between 2.5% and 3% through 2026, largely due to ongoing supply-side challenges, including Trump’s broad tariff initiatives Ken Griffin has a warning for Trump and the GOP: 'I would not ... [ 1 ].

Griffin’s remarks highlight the political dangers of ongoing inflation, especially for Trump’s chances in the next election. According to exit polls from 2024, inflation was a top issue for 83% of Republican and 73% of Democratic voters, with many blaming high prices on Democratic leadership. However, recent surveys show a shift: Trump’s ratings on economic matters have fallen to their lowest point, with just 28% of those polled approving of his approach to the cost of living Billionaire GOP megadonor Ken Griffin warns Trump's Federal … [ 2 ]. This drop comes as mortgage rates remain high and job growth has slowed to 30,000–40,000 new positions per month, a significant decrease from the post-pandemic surge Ken Griffin Warns: Inflation Is Far From Over - capwolf.com [ 3 ].

The administration’s strong push for tariffs has added further complexity to inflation trends. Griffin observed that only about half of the price increases from tariffs have been realized so far, with the rest still working their way through the economy. He cautioned that these policies could keep inflation above the Fed’s target, even as the central bank has begun lowering interest rates to support a slowing economy. The Fed’s recent 0.25% rate cut, its first in several months, signals concerns about a weakening job market The Trump Administration’s Interference With … [ 4 ].

Trump’s efforts to influence the Fed have attracted criticism from both economists and political figures. The president has labeled Fed Chair Jerome Powell as “incompetent” and called for more aggressive rate reductions, despite warnings that this could worsen inflation. In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, Griffin and University of Chicago professor Anil Kashyap argued that undermining the Fed’s independence could shake investor trust and push up long-term borrowing costs Billionaire GOP megadonor Ken Griffin warns Trump's Federal … [ 5 ]. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, also warned that political meddling in U.S. monetary policy could unsettle global financial markets Why the Federal Reserve has historically been … [ 6 ].

With the 2026 midterm elections on the horizon, the political stakes are rising. Democrats are seizing on public frustration with Trump’s economic performance, pointing to stagnant pay and higher living expenses. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 54% of Americans think the country’s economy is headed in the wrong direction, and 67% disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation Still too-high inflation poses political challenge for Trump [ 7 ]. Meanwhile, Republicans defend Trump’s record, citing tax cuts and deregulation as key supply-side reforms. Still, economists warn that short-term political moves often fuel inflation, as seen in the 1970s when Nixon pressured the Fed What Would Happen If The Federal Reserve … [ 8 ].

Griffin’s perspective emphasizes the challenging position the Fed faces in balancing its goals of stable prices and full employment. While the central bank’s autonomy has typically shielded it from political influence, Trump’s attempts to install loyalists and publicly criticize its decisions threaten this tradition. The tough rate hikes by former Fed Chair Paul Volcker in the 1980s, which tamed inflation but triggered a deep recession, serve as a reminder of the difficult choices an independent Fed may confront US Fed Independence Under Trump: Hassett, Powell, and the … [ 9 ].

As the nation deals with these economic headwinds, the relationship between political pressures and monetary policy will remain crucial. Griffin’s warnings highlight the importance of a coordinated strategy to tackle inflation, noting that persistently high rates could sway voters and alter the political landscape.