Trump-Era Federal Reserve Lending Growth May Drive Bitcoin to $3.4 Million by 2028

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom’s Chief Investment Officer, has made an ambitious forecast for

, suggesting its price could climb to $3.4 million by 2028. His outlook is based on a model that connects Bitcoin’s value to expected changes in U.S. monetary policy, particularly if Trump secures a second term. Hayes believes that if the Federal Reserve adopts yield curve control (YCC), it could unleash a wave of credit expansion, with total credit from the Fed and commercial banks potentially growing by $15.229 trillion through 2028 Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028 [ 1 ]. In this scenario, he argues, Bitcoin would benefit as a safeguard against the inflation that comes with fiat currency expansion Bitcoin at $3.4M? Hayes Says Yes, But $1M Is the Safer Target [ 3 ].

According to Hayes, this projection depends on the Fed acquiring about half of all new Treasury debt while commercial banks increase lending by $7.569 trillion during Trump’s possible next term Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028 [ 1 ]. The model is built on a historical link between Bitcoin’s price and credit growth, estimating that each new dollar of credit results in a 0.19% rise in BTC’s value Bitcoin to $3.4 Million? Hayes Ties Trump’s Yield Curve Control to ... [ 7 ]. Using this ratio, Hayes arrives at a $3.4 million Bitcoin price by 2028. While he admits this figure is speculative, he stresses that Bitcoin’s limited supply gives it an edge over traditional assets during inflationary periods Bitcoin at $3.4M? Hayes Says Yes, But $1M Is the Safer Target [ 3 ].

Hayes’ forecast also factors in political and institutional shifts. He anticipates that a Trump presidency would reshape the Federal Reserve by appointing loyalists to key positions, giving the administration more control over interest rates and monetary policy Bitcoin Could Hit $3.4M by 2028 Under Fed Yield Curve Control … [ 6 ]. This would allow the Fed to buy up Treasury debt that the private sector does not absorb, effectively monetizing government deficits and boosting liquidity. The model also predicts a transformation in global liquidity, with stablecoins absorbing $34 trillion in Eurodollar and European deposits by redirecting international banking flows Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028 [ 1 ]. Hayes contends that this would create steady demand for U.S. Treasury bills, further strengthening the Treasury’s grip on interest rates Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028 [ 1 ].

Despite his bullish long-term view, Hayes has taken a cautious stance in the near term. He recently sold his HYPE token holdings, locking in a profit of $823,000 Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028 [ 1 ], and has set a more conservative target of $250,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 Arthur Hayes Sees $3.4M BTC if Fed Prints Trillions [ 5 ]. This fits with his broader belief that increased liquidity—driven by Fed rate cuts and government stimulus—will boost demand for Bitcoin Arthur Hayes Sees $3.4M BTC if Fed Prints Trillions [ 5 ]. Analysts have observed that Bitcoin often lags behind gold in liquidity-driven cycles, typically following gold’s price movements with a delay of 100 to 150 days What Gold's New Highs Mean for Bitcoin and Global Liquidity [ 9 ]. If gold’s recent surge to new highs persists, Bitcoin could experience a similar rally in the coming months What Gold's New Highs Mean for Bitcoin and Global Liquidity [ 9 ].

Hayes’ model has ignited discussion among investors and analysts. While some, such as Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch, question whether liquidity alone can drive such dramatic price increases Bitcoin to $3.4 Million? Hayes Ties Trump’s Yield Curve Control to ... [ 7 ], others argue that a Trump-led overhaul of monetary policy could resemble strategies used during World War II Bitcoin Lags Gold as Global Liquidity Hits Record High [ 8 ]. There is also debate over whether Bitcoin and gold will compete or work together as safe-haven assets. Regardless, Hayes’ analysis highlights Bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce asset in a world of expanding liquidity and fiscal uncertainty. With U.S. M2 money supply at all-time highs and the dollar’s share of global reserves shrinking, both Bitcoin and gold are increasingly seen as protection against widespread currency devaluation.