Bitcoin Encounters $114K Resistance Ahead of $4.9 Trillion Options Expiration

The markets for Bitcoin and

are approaching a crucial phase, as the expiration of more than $4.9 trillion in stock and ETF options is set to introduce significant volatility. According to figures from Deribit, $3.5 billion worth of options and $806 million in Ethereum options are nearing expiry, with the maximum pain points identified at $114,000 for Bitcoin and $4,500 for Ethereum Bitcoin Options Expiry: Profit From Key Price Movements [ 2 ]. Experts caution that the scale of these expirations, which surpasses the crypto sector’s $4 trillion market cap, could result in pronounced price fluctuations, echoing the volatility seen during the substantial Bitcoin declines in March and June 2025 Bitcoin Options Expiry: Profit From Key Price Movements [ 2 ]. With a put-to-call ratio of 1.23 for Bitcoin and 0.99 for Ethereum, there appears to be a more negative outlook for Bitcoin and a slightly positive one for Ethereum $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto [ 4 ].

The max pain principle, proven to be accurate 73% of the time across 37 monthly expiries, predicts prices will move toward strike levels where the majority of options become worthless Over $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today – Volatility Ahead for BTC and ETH? [ 3 ]. For Bitcoin, this implies a possible drop towards $114,000, while Ethereum might face downward pressure near $4,500. Past trends indicate such expirations often cause short-lived price swings, averaging 2.8% deviations Over $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today – Volatility Ahead for BTC and ETH? [ 3 ]. In the last 11-16 hours before settlement, market makers controlling more than $6.3 billion in positions intensify delta-hedging, which increases the market’s directional moves Over $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today – Volatility Ahead for BTC and ETH? [ 3 ].

This options expiry aligns with broader macroeconomic shifts. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower rates has enhanced liquidity in digital asset markets, with 95% of Bitcoin’s supply currently in profit $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto [ 4 ]. Yet, institutional activity remains a pivotal factor. Deribit’s options data shows there are 30,208 Bitcoin and 177,398 Ethereum contracts with open interest, suggesting focused hedging strategies $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto [ 4 ]. Analysts from Greeks.live report a 23% surge in implied volatility for contracts expiring this Friday, even as trading volumes fall, reflecting a cautious stance ahead of the expiry BTC and ETH Options Expiry: Analysis of Put Call Ratios and Maxpain Points [ 7 ].

Market participants are bracing for increased short-term volatility. The total notional value of contracts expiring has grown 6% from last week to $4.3 billion, with Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio at 1.23 and Ethereum’s at 0.99, showing a slight bearish tilt for Bitcoin $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto [ 4 ]. Deribit’s statistics also highlight that volatility climbed to 47% in the 48 hours before the expiry, with historical price changes ranging from 12% to 27% Over $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today – Volatility Ahead for BTC and ETH? [ 3 ]. As the settlement approaches, liquidity providers are advised to watch for shifts in liquidity, as bid-ask spreads can widen by as much as 18% in the last four hours before settlement Over $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today – Volatility Ahead for BTC and ETH? [ 3 ].

Normally, markets stabilize within 27 to 90 minutes after expiry as the artificial volatility subsides Over $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today – Volatility Ahead for BTC and ETH? [ 3 ]. Still, the upcoming September 26 expiry is expected to be more significant, with $18 billion in contracts maturing, which could further intensify short-term price changes $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto [ 4 ]. Experts warn that while volatility might decrease post-expiry, the leveraged nature of options could lead to rapid price drops if forced liquidations occur $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto [ 4 ]. The next several weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can consistently remain above $115,200, a key threshold for maintaining upward momentum BTC and ETH Options Expiry: Analysis of Put Call Ratios and Maxpain Points [ 7 ].