Crypto’s Race Against Quantum Computing: Solana’s 5-Year Pressure Compared to Bitcoin’s 20-Year Outlook

Solana Co-Founder Warns Quantum Leap Could Jeopardize

, Calls for Adoption of Quantum-Safe Signatures title1 [ 1 ]

Anatoly Yakovenko, who helped establish

, has given a strong alert to those involved with Bitcoin, suggesting a significant quantum computing development might happen in as little as five years. During the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko stressed the immediate need for Bitcoin to upgrade its cryptographic framework to quantum-resistant signatures. “I estimate there’s a 50/50 chance of a quantum breakthrough within five years,” he remarked, highlighting how the combination of technologies such as AI is hastening progress. Yakovenko explained that quantum computers might eventually break Bitcoin’s current elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA), which depends on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) to remain secure title2 [ 2 ].

The risk arises because quantum computers could resolve tough cryptographic challenges much faster than traditional machines. Although Bitcoin’s ECDSA holds up against conventional computing, quantum tools like Shor’s algorithm could render it vulnerable, possibly exposing private keys through public information. Yakovenko’s viewpoint mirrors warnings from additional specialists. David Carvalho, Naoris Protocol’s chief scientist, recently suggested that quantum computers might “conceivably tear through” Bitcoin’s cryptography in under five years title3 [ 3 ]. Nevertheless, shifting Bitcoin’s cryptography to quantum-proof standards would require a controversial hard fork—a step many in the community are reluctant to take.

To address these challenges, Solana has proactively unveiled a quantum-resistant security layer. This new tool utilizes hash-based Winternitz One-Time Signatures (WOTS), producing a unique cryptographic key for every transaction. Such a method reduces the likelihood that public keys become targets for quantum-based attacks. The vault is designed as an opt-in feature, meaning users must intentionally keep their assets in Winternitz accounts instead of standard Solana wallets. Every transaction establishes a split-and-refund mechanism, helping to safeguard any leftover funds after transfers title4 [ 4 ].

In spite of these advancements, the timeline for quantum computing threats remains uncertain. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, predicts that it could take “perhaps 20 years” for quantum machines to become strong enough to compromise Bitcoin’s encryption title5 [ 5 ].

co-founder Vitalik Buterin holds a comparable opinion, believing real-world quantum dangers are still at least ten years away title6 [ 6 ]. Detractors such as Bitcoin supporter Fred Krueger have previously called fears about quantum threats exaggerated, but Solana’s recent initiatives put such skepticism to the test. Dean Little, the creator of the Winternitz Vault, responded to Krueger by pointing out the vault’s advanced cryptographic strength, including 112-bit resistance to quantum collisions title7 [ 7 ].

The mixed reactions within the crypto sector highlight the struggle between taking preventive action and facing practical hurdles. While Solana’s optional quantum-proof feature marks a technical breakthrough, widespread usage will depend on how users respond. Elsewhere, Ethereum and other blockchain projects are looking at ways to build quantum resistance for the long term, though many authorities still believe the risk is not immediate. Yakovenko’s urgent message reflects a growing agreement among developers to ensure blockchains are ready for the rapid pace of technological change. As quantum computing advances, the industry’s challenge will be to innovate while encouraging adoption—shaping how ready it is to confront new cryptographic threats.