Cryptos Signal Divergence Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Crypto assets send conflicting signals ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision. On-chain data reveals a clear decrease in Bitcoin and Ethereum flowing into centralized exchanges, but a sharp increase in altcoin inflows.

The findings come from a Tuesday report by CryptoQuant, an on-chain data platform. The firm’s data shows a stark divergence in coin volume, which has been observed in movements onto centralized exchanges over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Inflows Drop to Multi-Month Lows

Bitcoin has seen a dramatic drop in exchange inflows, with the 7-day moving average plummeting to 25,000 BTC, its lowest level in over a year. The average deposit per transaction has fallen to 0.57 BTC as of September. This suggests that smaller retail investors, rather than large-scale whales, are responsible for the recent cash-outs.

Ethereum is showing a similar trend, with its daily exchange inflows decreasing to a two-month low. CryptoQuant reported that the 7-day moving average for ETH deposits on exchanges is around 783,000 ETH, the lowest in two months.

Other Altcoins See Renewed Selling Pressure

In contrast, other altcoin deposit activity on exchanges has surged. The number of altcoin deposit transactions on centralized exchanges was quite steady in May and June of this year, maintaining a 7-day moving average of about 20,000 to 30,000. Recently, however, that figure has jumped to 55,000 transactions.

Altcoins: Exchange Inflow Transaction Count. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant projects that altcoins, given their increased inflow activity, could face relatively higher selling pressure compared to BTC and ETH.

Meanwhile, the balance of stablecoins on exchanges—a key indicator of potential buying pressure—has increased significantly. The report notes that the exchange USDT balance, around $273 million in April, grew to $379 million by August 31, marking a new yearly high.

CryptoQuant interprets this surge as a reflection of investor optimism for a favorable monetary policy from the Fed. Depending on the Fed’s decision, these investors may shift from their current altcoin holdings to higher-risk assets.