The "perfect macro narrative" is forming—will the crypto market usher in the start of a new quarterly trend?

Author: Hotcoin Research

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap is $4.01 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.21%, amounting to $2.29 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $287.8 billion, with a 7-day decrease of -0.12%. This is the first weekly decline in the past three months, with USDT accounting for 58.88%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most rose while a few declined, including: MYX with a 7-day increase of 1324%, WLD up 85.13%, MNT up 35.1%, ATH up 87.11%, and PLUME up 42.85% over 7 days.

This week, the net inflow for US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $2.324 billion; the net inflow for US Ethereum spot ETFs was $637.5 million.

Market forecast (September 15 - September 19):

Currently, the RSI index is 63.05, showing a neutral to strong trend. The Fear & Greed Index is at 53 (higher than last week). Notably, the Altcoin Season Index is at 78, entering the FOMO range. On September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. If the rate cut is completed and the stance is dovish, it may push the market to break through resistance. If unexpectedly hawkish (a low-probability event), it may trigger a pullback.

BTC core range: $112,000-117,000

ETH core range: $4,500-4,800

SOL core range: $220-250

Conservative strategy: Gradually build positions near support levels (e.g., BTC ≤ $112k, ETH ≤ $4.5k, SOL ≤ $220), with stop-loss set 3-5% below support.

Aggressive strategy: If resistance is broken (BTC > $117k, ETH > $4.8k, SOL > $250) with increased volume, consider light chasing long positions.

Hedging risk: Avoid high leverage, as volatility may double before and after the Federal Reserve meeting.

Understanding the Present

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On September 8, stablecoin issuers Paxos, Frax Finance, Agora, and others are competing for the issuance rights of the upcoming USDH stablecoin by Hyperliquid;

2. On September 8, Arbitrum ecosystem modular trading platform Kinto suffered a smart contract attack in July, losing 577 ETH (about $1.55 million), and announced it will shut down on September 30. Its founder Recuero promised to compensate some hacking victims after Kinto closes;

3. On September 11, WLFI announced the joint launch of Project Wings on Solana with ecosystem partners. This event focuses on traders and aims to bring a more vibrant and in-depth market experience to the community. The USD1 trading pair is now live on BONK.fun and Raydium Launchlab, and users can participate in trading;

4. On September 11, US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul S. Atkins reiterated the key points of his speech at the first OECD Global Financial Markets Roundtable, stating that the combination of blockchain and AI will usher in a new era of prosperity, and the SEC is determined to seize the opportunity;

5. On September 12, gold prices have surpassed the inflation-adjusted peak from 45 years ago. As concerns about the US economic outlook intensify, gold has continued its strong bull run over the past three years and entered uncharted territory.

6. On September 10, the US SEC postponed the review of Franklin's spot SOL and XRP ETF applications, moving the original deadline from September 15 to November 14, 2025.

Macroeconomics

1. On September 9, the preliminary change in US nonfarm payroll benchmark for 2025 was -911,000, expected -700,000;

2. On September 10, US August PPI YoY was 2.6%, expected 3.3%, previous 3.30%, lower than market expectations;

3. On September 11, US August unadjusted CPI YoY recorded 2.9%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations;

4. On September 11, the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the second consecutive meeting, as officials assess the impact of trade agreements between the EU and the US.

ETF

According to statistics, during September 8-12, the net inflow for US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $2.324 billion. As of September 12, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.947 billion and currently holds $20.803 billion. IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $88.187 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $153.567 billion.

The net inflow for US Ethereum spot ETFs was $637.5 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. EDCON 2025 will be held in Osaka, Japan from September 16 to 19, bringing together global Ethereum community members to discuss protocol updates, ecosystem development, and the future of Web3;

2. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be held in South Korea from September 22 to 28;

3. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore from October 1 to 2, 2025.

Project Updates

1. Japanese nationwide clothing brand Mac House plans to start purchasing Bitcoin from September 17, 2025, with a total investment of 1.715 billion yen, approximately $110 million;

2. The deadline for claiming Union's U Drop airdrop is September 18.

Key Events

1. At 21:45 on September 17, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision;

2. At 02:00 on September 18, the US will announce the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) as of September 17;

3. At 20:30 on September 18, the US will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 (in tens of thousands).

Token Unlocks

1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on September 15, worth about $17.04 million, accounting for 5.98% of circulating supply;

2. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on September 15, worth about $18.64 million, accounting for 1.18% of circulating supply;

3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on September 16, worth about $49.06 million, accounting for 2.03% of circulating supply;

4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock $173 million on September 17, worth about $10.52 million, accounting for 3.61% of circulating supply;

5. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on September 18, worth about $89.8 million, accounting for 2.08% of circulating supply;

6. Velo (VELO) will unlock 3 billion tokens on September 20, worth about $46.48 million, accounting for 13.63% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to turning professional analysis into your practical tool. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Select" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also interact with you via live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and forecasting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.