Bitcoin May Defy September Slump as Exchange Supply Hits Multi-Year Low
Bitcoin’s September weakness may continue, yet shrinking exchange reserves and potential Fed catalysts suggest a setup for a Q4 rebound.
September has traditionally been a difficult month for Bitcoin (BTC), with price charts often showing weakness. However, some experts predict a potential surge, pointing to falling exchange reserves as a signal of upward momentum.
The optimistic outlook comes despite Bitcoin’s recent struggles. The largest cryptocurrency has slipped 2% over the past week, reflecting broader market uncertainty.
Bitcoin Outlook: Seasonal Lows or Rally Ahead?
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin’s average return in September stood at -3.33%, making it the cryptocurrency’s worst month. BTC ended the month in red for six consecutive years between 2017 and 2022, making its prospects for this year also somber.
 Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: 
 Coinglass
Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: 
 Coinglass
 Notably, many experts agree on this perspective. An analyst has characterized the current market as resembling a ‘classic stock market top.’ This indicated potential vulnerability to further corrections.
Furthermore, analyst Timothy Peterson highlighted that Bitcoin’s value dipped 6.5% last month. The analyst predicted a price range of $97,000 to $113,000 by the end of September, reflecting a continuation of this trend.
‘It’s part of a seasonal pattern that has played out over many years,” Peterson added.
#Bitcoin – Two possible scernarios for BTC 1) Green: If 108k support holds, the price will soon continue heading higher.2) Red: If $108k support breaks, we might see a deeper retest of the upward-sloping trendline. pic.twitter.com/pyQTikXxfn
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) September 4, 2025
Meanwhile, many anticipate that while declines may come, the coin will bounce back next quarter. Based on past patterns, October and November are the strongest months for Bitcoin, so that could very well happen.
“Historically, Bitcoin has always bottomed out in September after the year of the halving. After that, it’s mostly smooth sailing. Despite me usually not looking at the past and using it as a signal for accuracy (I look at price action today). Looking at charts right now, this could actually very well play out again,” Crypto Nova wrote.
This view is supported by Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse. He noted that September often marks a low point in post-halving years, typically followed by a rebound into a market cycle peak in the fourth quarter.
Nonetheless, some maintain a more optimistic view. Data shared by crypto analyst Rand showed a steady decline in BTC held on exchanges. Moreover, the exchange supply has plunged to a six-year low.
This signals reduced selling pressure. In addition, if demand increases, this shrinking supply can support a more bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
“Bullish supply shock,” Cade Bergmann added.
Rand also emphasized that momentum appears to be reversing from negative to positive, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. With just under two weeks until the market expected Fed rate cuts, the analyst suggested the policy shift could provide the catalyst for a stronger recovery in September.
 Bitcoin Momentum. Source: 
 X/CryptoRand
Bitcoin Momentum. Source: 
 X/CryptoRand
 Lastly, market watchers are also eyeing key dates. Analyst Marty Party pointed to September 6 as a potential trigger, tied to market maker activity.
“Bitcoin market makers have cooked on the 6th of each month. IMO: Sept 6th is a move. That’s the event window till Sept 17th FOMC,” he said.
#Bitcoin is only 1.7% of global unbacked fiat. That means 98.3% of the currency supply is still waiting to be disrupted. WE ARE SO EARLY. pic.twitter.com/Bh2Zi2v89p
— Carl ₿ MENGER
(@CarlBMenger) September 3, 2025
Now, Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure, with experts divided on whether September will mark a bottom or a continued decline. The coming weeks, particularly around the forecasted Fed decision, will be critical in determining whether the cryptocurrency can defy its seasonal weakness and capitalize on the current supply dynamics.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Powell: Another rate cut in December is not a certainty, there are significant divisions within the committee, the job market continues to cool, and there is short-term upward pressure on inflation (full text attached)
Powell stated that inflation still faces upward pressure in the short term, while employment is facing downside risks. The current situation is quite challenging, and there remains significant disagreement within the committee regarding whether to cut rates again in December; a rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Some FOMC members believe it is time to pause. Powell also mentioned that higher tariffs are driving up prices in certain categories of goods, leading to an overall increase in inflation.

Mars Morning News | Due to uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, the crypto market seeks support downward
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that a rate cut in December is not inevitable, leading to a significant decrease in market expectations for rate cuts and a decline in risk assets. The crypto market also dropped as a result, with bitcoin falling below $110,000. The trading volume of Bitwise Solana ETF continues to grow. Summary generated by Mars AI. The accuracy and completeness of the content generated by the Mars AI model are still being iteratively updated.

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