Market Turning Bearish? Bitcoin Death Cross, Ethereum Whales’ Game, and Growing Investor Anxiety

Anxious, very anxious. I always feel like I haven't made any money yet, but the market is already starting to talk about turning bearish, and all kinds of news are making my head spin. Bitcoin is facing a weekly MACD death cross, and Ethereum is barely holding on. Trend Research, which recently achieved impressive results by calling for ETH at the bottom, and has always been bullish on the Ethereum ecosystem, quietly sold all their PENDLE and ENS at a loss this morning.

At times like this, should I hold on, or should I retreat? All I can do is keep looking through market voices, hoping to find someone who can "recharge my faith" and give an outlet to this anxiety.

The Ethereum and Bitcoin Game Stirred by Whales

In the past two weeks, the protagonist of the crypto market has been none other than an ancient whale. Their large-scale selling of BTC to switch to ETH can be said to be the "culprit" behind Bitcoin's weakness. This big player has already dumped a total of 34,110 BTC, cashing out about $3.7 billions, and bought 813,298.84 ETH, worth about $3.66 billions. Now, in his remaining two wallets, he still holds 49,816 BTC, valued at about $6 billions. The question is: will he continue to sell? How much more? It's like a sword of Damocles hanging over Bitcoin. All we can say is, the selling side is too strong.

For Ethereum, the whale's rebalancing is an obvious positive. This may be one of the key reasons why ETH has been stronger than BTC recently. However, the next two weeks won't be easy for Ethereum either, as there are currently 932,246 ETH queued for unstaking, representing a potential sell-off of about $400 millions that could impact the market.

Now, it all depends on the whale's actions. If he can absorb Ethereum, it will inevitably hit Bitcoin hard. The zero-sum game is still ongoing.

Super Week: The Clash of Data and Rate Cuts

In the coming weeks, the global market's attention is almost entirely focused on the Federal Reserve. According to today's CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 87.4%, and investors are betting that the Fed is about to start a new round of easing.

This week is truly a "Super Week", with ADP private employment data, ISM Services PMI, and especially the core of the core—nonfarm payrolls report—all of which will influence the Fed's FOMC meeting decision on September 16-17. If a series of data, especially nonfarm payrolls, come in weak, the market may bet that the Fed will start cutting rates faster and sooner; if the data is strong, it will weaken expectations for a rate cut. No matter the outcome, this week is bound to be extremely volatile. For investors, caution is the only answer.

Although Powell's speech on the evening of August 22 sent dovish signals, he did not provide strong guidance on the duration or magnitude of rate cuts. The latest research report from CICC points out that the market should not over-interpret Fed Chair Powell's "dovish" remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting. With the US currently facing higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies, both employment and inflation risks coexist. If inflation risk outweighs employment, the Fed may halt rate cuts. Even if there is a 25 basis point cut in September, it does not mean the start of a sustained easing cycle. CICC warns that if "quasi-stagflation" pressure intensifies, the Fed will face a dilemma and market volatility may increase.

The Trump side is trying to push for a closer-knit Federal Reserve Board to tilt policy in a dovish direction. The Fed Board has seven members when full; currently, apart from Cook, who is in a legal battle with Trump, two members—Jefferson and Barr—were appointed by the Biden administration and, like Cook, are aligned with Powell. Bowman, Waller, and Mullan are generally seen as Trump supporters. If the court rules that Trump can fire Cook, Trump will quickly nominate a successor, giving him a 4-3 majority on the board. However, this ruling is unlikely to be completed before the September meeting, but Cook's absence could result in a tie between the three Trump appointees, two Biden appointees, and Powell. The September rate meeting could become a watershed for market direction.

Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that it is correct for investors to remain cautious in September. After a long pause, the Fed is restarting a mild rate-cutting cycle, making it difficult for traders to determine their positions. The long-time US stock bull expects the S&P 500 to fall 5% to 10% this fall, then rebound to between 6,800 and 7,000 points.

WLFI Siphoning Liquidity from the Market?

Another "super bomb" is also counting down. The Trump family crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) will launch tonight at 8 PM (UTC+8). Many people can't help but recall the previous TRUMP token: a small group got rich, but the whole market crashed. So, the question on everyone's mind is: will the TRUMP storyline repeat with WLFI?

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684 xtpa's summary of WLFI investor purchase costs, WLFI held 8 rounds of public fundraising, raising a total of $2.26 billions. At the current pre-market price of $0.32, the lowest cost in the first round of public sale was only $0.015, meaning the profit margin has exceeded 20 times, which also means a high likelihood of "dumping on" after WLFI goes live.

Two public sale rounds have clarified that 20% will be unlocked at TGE, with the remaining 80% awaiting community vote. Team/advisor/partner tokens are locked, but it is still unclear whether strategic round tokens for institutions will be unlocked. The entire network is currently watching TGE circulating supply. According to Coinmarketcap.com, circulating supply is 27.2 billions, valued at about $8.7 billions. The CMC CEO said this circulating data has been repeatedly confirmed with the project team, which means strategic round tokens will also circulate at TGE. If so, "dumping on" at launch may be inevitable.

However, crypto KOL @0xDylan_ (suspected to be a WLFI Wallet team member) posted that the WLFI tokenomics have been updated: 8% allocated to Alt 5 Public Company and locked, 10% reserved for future incentive plans and points (locked, details to be announced by the official team). Team and institutional investor shares are locked. In addition, 3% is for centralized exchange liquidity (CEX liquidity) and decentralized exchange liquidity (DEX LP), and 5% allocated to investors. This means the circulating supply is the unlocked 5% plus the 3% for liquidity, totaling 8%, or 8 billions in circulation, valued at $2.56 billions.

Odaily previously predicted in "WLFI Halved Before Launch, Will It Rise or Fall on September 1?" that another possibility is WLFI, also endorsed by Trump, may see Trump congratulate or post various "shilling" comments about WLFI on social media on launch day, and the ambiguous relationship with the president will bring more hype opportunities for WLFI.

If we add the fact that only 8% is circulating, it's possible that WLFI's price will be continuously pushed up at launch. But the high FDV and potential strategic round selling pressure are ticking time bombs—once the unlock ratio increases or the hype cools down, a sharp correction could still occur.

Other Market Voices: Bitcoin Remains a Belief, But Caution Needed in the Short Term

Hedging Logic: Gold and Bitcoin in Parallel

Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," once again mentioned Bitcoin, stating that Europe is facing a severe debt crisis, France is close to a "Bastille Day-style" revolt, and Germany faces internal unrest risks due to high manufacturing costs from energy policies. He pointed out that since 2020, US Treasuries have fallen 13%, European bonds 24%, and UK bonds 32%, with global markets losing confidence in major economies' debt repayment abilities. Kiyosaki said Japan and China are selling US Treasuries and turning to gold and silver, and he once again urges investors to protect themselves by holding gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Bitwise's Head of European Research, André Dragosch, also said that gold is usually the best hedge when the stock market falls, while Bitcoin is more resilient when US Treasuries are under pressure. Historical data also shows that gold tends to rise during stock market bear markets, while Bitcoin is more supported during US Treasury sell-offs. As of 2025, gold prices have risen over 30%, and Bitcoin about 16.46%, reflecting investors' differentiated choices amid rising yields, stock market volatility, and President Trump's pro-crypto stance.

Traders' Caution and Waiting: Uptrend Expected in Fall 2025

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he is currently not participating in market trading, but needs to clarify (for followers) that if you want to see significant volatility in altcoins, it must be driven by a breakout in Bitcoin, but currently Bitcoin's performance does not meet the bulls' expectations.

Previously, on August 14, Eugene had already closed most of his ETH positions to significantly reduce risk exposure, and on August 24, he stated that the bull market cycle was coming to an end, and his personal ETH trading had completely ended.

In the latest "Matrix onTarget" report, Matrixport also said it has turned more conservative, pointing out that this round of correction may still continue. Seasonal weakness has been evident since late July, and phase pressure is accumulating.

This week, US employment data will be released, and Bitcoin is at a key technical level. If the price drops further, it may surprise most traders, but this risk cannot be ignored. Historical experience shows that rate cuts are often seen as positive for the crypto market, but are often accompanied by twists and turns.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan said the crypto market cycle is slowing, and an uptrend is expected in fall 2025. Looking at the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than a year (based on realized market value), past cycles (phase one and two) showed the market surged and peaked. However, in the current phase (phase three), the uptrend slope is gradually flattening, and the cycle is getting longer.

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno posted on X that from a short-term valuation perspective, if Bitcoin cannot quickly recover $112,000, the next support is around $100,000. The current BTC price is $107,420.

Conclusion

Whether it's whale rebalancing, macro rate cut games, or the cautious attitude of professional traders, almost all voices convey a common point: the current market is in a gray area, and waiting and caution are the only strategies.

Anxiety may not disappear; it will continue to accompany us as we sway with every market fluctuation. But perhaps, this is the market's normal state—it never provides certainty, only choices.

What we can do is not anxiously look for someone to "recharge our faith," but to find our own stance amid uncertainty, and to build patience through repeated testing.