Bitcoin's Pullback as a Strategic Entry Point: Why the $105K Support Could Ignite the Next Bullish Surge

Bitcoin’s current test of the $105,000 support level represents a pivotal moment for investors. This psychological and technical threshold has drawn intense scrutiny, as it balances short-term bearish momentum with long-term structural optimism. A breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper correction, but a successful defense would likely reignite the bullish narrative, setting the stage for a potential surge toward $120,000 by October 2025 [1].

Technical Foundations: A Confluence of Support

The RSI at 38.72 and a MACD histogram of -704.4578 indicate bearish momentum, yet the RSI’s proximity to oversold territory (below 40) suggests a potential rebound [1]. The 200-day SMA at $103,995 reinforces the $105K zone as a critical support cluster [4]. On-chain metrics like the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio and Value Days Destroyed (VDD) further signal utility-driven strength, with VDD entering the green zone—a sign of institutional accumulation [2]. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $105K, it could retest $113K resistance, leveraging the 20-day EMA at $114,365 as a key breakout target [1].

Macro-Driven Catalysts: ETFs, Whales, and Halving Dynamics

The macroeconomic backdrop is equally compelling. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a resurgence in inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC attracting $63.38 million and $65.56 million, respectively, on August 25 [5]. These inflows, part of a $54 billion cumulative trend, reflect institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a core asset [5]. Meanwhile, whale activity remains a double-edged sword: while a $438 million dump in August triggered a flash crash, new whales like Galaxy Digital’s $163.5 million wallet signal strategic accumulation [1][3].

The 2024 halving event, which reduced mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block, adds another layer of bullish pressure. By halving supply issuance, the event has created a $77 billion annual supply gap, far below institutional demand of $3–4 trillion [1]. This scarcity dynamic, combined with the Fed’s rate freeze and regulatory tailwinds (e.g., 401(k) inclusion), positions Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty [3].

Historical Parallels: Corrections as Buying Opportunities

History offers parallels to the current scenario. In Q1 2025, Bitcoin’s $109K peak followed a $4.5 billion ETF inflow surge, while Q3 saw $118 billion in inflows amid regulatory clarity [3]. Post-correction rebounds, such as the 11% recovery from $111K to $124K in August 2025, were preceded by ETF inflows and a shift in derivatives sentiment [2]. These patterns suggest that institutional re-entry during dips often precedes price surges, validating the $105K zone as a strategic entry point [5].

Strategic Entry: Balancing Risk and Reward

For long-term investors, the $105K–$106.5K range offers a high-probability entry. Conservative strategies focus on accumulating during consolidation, with a bullish breakout above $114K requiring strong volume confirmation [1]. A breakdown below $105K would target $101K (SMA 200), but the broader macroeconomic tailwinds—ETF inflows, halving-driven scarcity, and institutional demand—suggest a floor at this level [4].

Conclusion: A Convergence of Forces

Bitcoin’s pullback to $105K is not a bearish signal but a setup for a potential bullish surge. The interplay of technical support, macroeconomic catalysts, and institutional accumulation creates a compelling case for long-term investors. While risks remain—particularly from whale-driven volatility and regulatory shifts—the current environment mirrors historical inflection points where patience and strategic entry paid off handsomely.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin's $105K Support: A Critical Inflection Point for BTC Bulls & Bears [2] Bitcoin's MVRV Compression and Market Consolidation [3] Bitcoin Q1 2025: Historic Highs, Volatility, and Institutional Moves [4] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Dips Below $110K [5] Bitcoin ETF Inflows and the Bull Market Threshold