XRP's Wave 4 Correction: A Strategic Entry Point for Long-Term Bulls?

The XRP price action in 2025 has painted a complex yet compelling narrative for long-term investors. As the token navigates a Wave 4 correction under Elliott Wave theory, the interplay between bearish consolidation and institutional accumulation creates a unique inflection point. For strategic buyers, this phase represents a calculated opportunity to position for a potential Wave 5 rally, particularly with regulatory and market catalysts aligning to unlock institutional capital flows.

Elliott Wave Dynamics: Bearish Targets and Structural Resilience

XRP’s current bearish correction, identified as Wave 4 by analysts, has seen the price decline from a July 2025 peak of $3.65 to a projected range of $2.60–$2.65 [1]. This phase, part of a broader bullish cycle, is critical for completing the corrective structure before transitioning into Wave 5. Technical indicators suggest a symmetrical triangle pattern, with $2.80 as a key support level. A breakdown below this threshold could trigger a 25% decline to $2.17, but analysts emphasize that Wave 4 corrections are inherently temporary, paving the way for a stronger Wave 5 impulse [2].

Backtest the impact of XRP with Support Level at $2.80, from 2022 to now.
However, historical backtests of the $2.80 support level from 2022 to 2025 reveal mixed outcomes. When the price touched this level, the average 30-day return was -11.6%, suggesting that while the level is structurally significant, it may not consistently serve as a reliable long-entry signal. This underscores the importance of combining technical analysis with broader market context and risk management strategies.

Dark Defender’s analysis adds nuance, projecting a $5.85 target for XRP in the short term and a $18.22 ceiling for Wave 5 if the corrective phase concludes successfully [4]. These projections hinge on the token holding critical support levels, which would validate the Elliott Wave structure and signal a resumption of bullish momentum.

Institutional Accumulation: A Catalyst for Long-Term Value

While the bearish narrative dominates short-term charts, institutional activity tells a different story. Over 310 million XRP tokens—valued at $1 billion—have been accumulated by institutional investors during price dips in 2025 [2]. This trend is amplified by the Grayscale XRP Trust’s 40% year-to-date increase in holdings, reflecting growing demand in institutional portfolios [2]. Whale activity further reinforces this trend, with $1 billion in XRP purchased within 72 hours of the SEC’s reclassification of XRP as a commodity under the CLARITY Act [1].

The regulatory clarity provided by the SEC and CFTC settlements has removed a major legal overhang, enabling XRP to trade on U.S. exchanges without securities law constraints [5]. This development has catalyzed a surge in institutional interest, with Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service processing $1.3 trillion in cross-border transactions in Q2 2025 [1].

ETF Approval and the Path to $15+

The pending approval of 11 spot XRP ETFs by year-end 2025 could unlock $5–$8 billion in institutional capital, with JPMorgan estimating up to $8 billion in first-year inflows [3]. The SEC’s delayed decision to October 24, 2025, reflects rigorous scrutiny but signals openness to crypto ETFs [2]. Industry analysts assign a 95% probability of approval by Q4 2025, with Polymarket odds at 86% [1].

If approved, these ETFs would provide a regulated on-ramp for institutional and retail investors, potentially driving XRP’s price to $3.65–$5.80 by 2025 [1]. This aligns with Wave 5 projections from Fibonacci analysis, which suggest a $15–$18.22 target [3]. The combination of regulatory clarity, ETF-driven liquidity, and institutional accumulation creates a self-reinforcing cycle that could propel XRP to new all-time highs.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

For long-term bulls, the current Wave 4 correction offers a disciplined entry point. Key support levels at $2.65 and $2.80 should be closely monitored, as a breakdown below $2.60 could extend the correction. However, a successful consolidation above $2.80 would validate the Wave 4 structure and set the stage for a Wave 5 rally. Investors should also consider the broader macroeconomic context, including the potential for ETF-driven liquidity and Ripple’s expanding utility in cross-border payments.

In conclusion, XRP’s Elliott Wave dynamics and institutional tailwinds present a compelling case for strategic accumulation. While short-term volatility remains a risk, the alignment of technical, regulatory, and capital flows suggests that Wave 4 is a temporary setback rather than a terminal decline. For those with a multi-year horizon, the current price action may represent a rare opportunity to position for a potential multi-bagger outcome.

**Source:[1] XRP ETF Approval and the Institutionalization of Altcoins [2] XRP's Correction: A Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign? [3] XRP Price Prediction: Fibonacci And Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests $15 By May 2025 [4] XRP Price To $5.85: Analyst Reveals Why The New Week Will Be ‘Dynamic’