Is Bitcoin Repeating Its 2021 Cycle Top?

Bitcoin’s 2025 market cycle has drawn striking parallels to its 2021 peak, yet the dynamics underpinning this convergence suggest a more complex and mature market. Technical indicators and institutional demand patterns are aligning in ways that echo the 2021 cycle, but with structural differences that could redefine Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Technical Indicators: A Familiar Yet Evolving Pattern

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which tracks the intersection of the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and twice the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2), has historically signaled major Bitcoin peaks. In April 2021, this metric identified a top just before a sharp correction, though it missed the November 2021 peak [1]. Today, the 111DMA is approaching the 350DMA x 2 threshold, suggesting a potential cycle top in Q1 2027 or a shorter-term peak by October 2025 [1].

The MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value, has rebounded to levels last seen during the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, indicating accumulation by long-term holders [1]. In 2021, the Z-Score peaked at 2.24, but current levels are significantly lower than the extreme overbought conditions (Z-Score >7) observed in 2017 [3]. This suggests a more measured bullish phase, driven by institutional accumulation rather than retail speculation.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought territory (73 monthly), and the 50-day SMA at $113,000 acts as dynamic support. A breakout above $116,000 could target $127,000–$128,000, while a breakdown below $110,000 risks a retest of $100,000 [1]. These patterns mirror 2021’s technical setup but with a broader base of institutional participation.

Institutional Demand: A New Paradigm

Institutional demand has surged, reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage $86.79 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT dominating inflows [1]. Corporate treasuries, including MicroStrategy’s $71.2 billion in Bitcoin and the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, have solidified Bitcoin’s role as a macroeconomic hedge [1]. Regulatory tailwinds, such as the BITCOIN Act and 401(k) inclusion, have unlocked access to an $8.9 trillion capital pool [1].

Notably, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, NBIM, increased its Bitcoin holdings by 83% in Q2 2025, reflecting growing institutional confidence [4]. This contrasts with 2021, when ETF approvals in 2024 marked the first major institutional entry point [5]. Today’s market is characterized by a 40:1 supply-demand imbalance, with 70% of Bitcoin held by long-term investors [3]. This structural shift has reduced volatility (1.8% annualized) and created a floor for price corrections [3].

Divergences from 2021: A Maturing Market

While 2021’s cycle was driven by retail speculation and halving events, 2025’s dynamics are shaped by institutional capital and regulatory clarity. The traditional four-year halving cycle has lost predictive power, with institutional flows now dominating price discovery [1]. For instance, the 2025 halving coincided with a 40:1 supply-demand imbalance, but institutional demand—rather than scarcity—has become the primary driver [3].

Moreover, the largest correction in this cycle has been only 26%, compared to 70-80% drawdowns in 2017 and 2021 [2]. This resilience stems from long-term holder accumulation and steady ETF inflows, which have created a buffer against volatility [2]. Analysts project a range of $145,000 to $1 million by year-end, with consensus clustering around $180,000–$250,000 [2].

Risks and Uncertainties

Bitcoin’s 0.85 correlation with the S&P 500 exposes it to global market volatility, and a Fed tightening cycle or regulatory uncertainty could trigger deeper corrections [1]. Additionally, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator’s historical accuracy is not infallible; it failed to predict the 2021 November peak [3]. While the MVRV Z-Score and RSI suggest overbought conditions, the absence of extreme levels (e.g., Z-Score >7) implies a more gradual top formation.

Conclusion: A New Cycle or a Repeating Pattern?

Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle shares technical and institutional similarities with 2021 but operates within a fundamentally different market structure. The convergence of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, MVRV Z-Score, and institutional demand signals a potential peak, yet the maturation of Bitcoin as an institutional asset complicates traditional cycle models. While historical patterns offer guidance, the integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance suggests a new paradigm—one where macroeconomic factors and capital flows, rather than halving events, dictate its trajectory.

**Source:[1] Is Bitcoin Approaching a Cycle Top in Late 2025? A [2] Bitcoin Price Predictions 2025: Analysts Forecast $145K to [3] Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator [4] Bitcoin Institutional Adoption: How U.S. Regulatory Clarity Unlocks $3 Trillion in Capital [5] US Bitcoin ETF Tracker & AUM