Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Quiet Transformation: Why $126K Feels Inevitable

Initial jobless claims in the United States fell by 10,000 from the previous week to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, 2025, marking a decline below market expectations that the figure would remain unchanged. Despite this drop, the level remained above the annual average, signaling a continued softening of the U.S. labor market. Meanwhile, the number of outstanding unemployment claims rose by 37,000 to 1,974,000 in the prior week, exceeding market forecasts of 1,950,000 and reaching the highest level since November 2021. This suggests growing challenges for the unemployed in securing new employment opportunities [1].

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a key indicator that smooths out weekly volatility, increased by 5,000 to 240,250, the highest since late August 2023. This trend supports the broader narrative of a labor market that is gradually losing resilience amid economic uncertainty. The continued upward trajectory in continuing claims reinforces the view that job seekers are encountering longer durations of unemployment. Analysts and economic models project initial jobless claims to trend around 210,000 in 2026 and 190,000 in 2027, based on current trajectories and macroeconomic modeling [1].

A specific segment under observation includes initial claims filed by federal government employees. Recent dismissals by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have drawn attention to this segment, and the number of such claims has fluctuated across weeks. In the second week of June, these claims fell by 55 to 480, continuing a downward trend observed in the first week of June, when claims dropped by 26 to 535. However, in the last week of May, claims had increased by 23 to 561, showing some inconsistency in the pattern [1].

Turning to the cryptocurrency market, JPMorgan analysts have stated that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold, particularly as its volatility has dropped to historical lows. The volatility of Bitcoin has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to about 30% today. Based on this volatility-adjusted analysis, JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin’s fair value is approximately $126,000 by the end of the year. The analysts attributed this decline in volatility to the accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries, which now hold over 6% of the total supply, drawing a parallel to the impact of central bank quantitative easing on bond markets post-2008 [2].

The analysts noted that the reduced volatility enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as an investment asset, making it easier for institutions to allocate capital. They pointed out that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold has dropped to 2.0—the lowest in history—implying that Bitcoin now carries twice the risk capital as gold in portfolio allocations. To match the $5 trillion private gold market, Bitcoin’s $2.2 trillion market capitalization would need to rise by approximately 13%. This would imply a price target of $126,000. Additionally, the analysts emphasized that institutional adoption and index-driven inflows are strengthening Bitcoin’s investment profile, particularly as more companies are using Bitcoin as a reserve asset [2].

In another significant development, American Bitcoin, a firm backed by two of President Donald Trump’s sons, is preparing to list on the Nasdaq following a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. The firm, which will retain the name American Bitcoin and trade under the ticker ABTC, is set to begin trading in early September. Key investors and anchor shareholders include the co-founders of crypto exchange Gemini, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. The company’s CEO, Asher Genoot, highlighted the advantages of merging with an existing entity, noting the potential to expand into international markets to accommodate investors who are currently restricted from buying Nasdaq-listed stocks [3].

The launch of American Bitcoin coincides with the Trump administration’s broader push to develop a regulatory framework that supports the growth of the cryptocurrency industry. Genoot stated that the firm will accumulate Bitcoin through both mining and direct purchases, with Hut 8 leasing data centers to American Bitcoin to support its operations. While critics have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest given the Trump family’s involvement in the sector, Genoot emphasized that the business operates independently of any government influence, with the Trump sons focusing primarily on strategic areas such as mining and treasury management [3].

Source: [1] United States Initial Jobless Claims [2] JPMorgan says current bitcoin price 'too low,' sees upside to $126,000 by year-end [3] American Bitcoin, backed by Trump sons, aims to start trading on Nasdaq