Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Bears Line Up for $11.6B Options Expiry Showdown

Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth $11.62 billion and $3.03 billion, respectively, are set to expire on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, on Friday, August 29, 2025. This represents a total notional value of $14.65 billion across the two cryptocurrencies, marking one of the largest options expiries of the year. Open interest for Bitcoin is heavily skewed toward put options, with 48,961 contracts concentrated around strike prices of $108,000 to $112,000—levels close to Bitcoin’s current market price of around $110,000. Call options, meanwhile, are more widely distributed at higher strike prices, indicating a mix of bearish caution and lingering bullish expectations for a potential rebound [1].

For Ethereum, the open interest is more balanced, with 393,534 call contracts and 291,128 put contracts, totaling $3.03 billion in notional value. Strike prices for calls are concentrated at $3,800, $4,000, and $5,000, while puts are most active at $4,000, $3,700, and $2,200. This distribution suggests a relatively neutral sentiment among traders, with fewer signs of aggressive hedging compared to Bitcoin [1]. Deribit noted that while Bitcoin’s expiry reflects a clear demand for downside protection, Ethereum’s positioning appears more evenly balanced between bullish and bearish traders [2].

The expiry event has broader market implications as it occurs in the context of heightened volatility. In the past week, approximately $900 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with $320 million in ETH and $277 million in BTC. This comes as the broader market experienced over 1.5% declines in both assets, aligning with movements in the S&P 500 index [1]. Additionally, the expiry follows signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, which left the door open for a potential interest rate cut in September but without a clear commitment [1]. These macroeconomic signals could influence trader behavior around the expiry and shape the short-term tone for September.

Market participants are also watching the “max pain” theory closely, which posits that prices tend to gravitate toward strike levels where the largest number of options expire worthless. For this expiry, the max pain levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum are estimated at $116,000 and $3,800, respectively [3]. While the theory remains controversial and has never been conclusively proven, it has become a commonly referenced framework among traders during expiry periods. The potential for prices to move toward these levels adds an additional layer of uncertainty, particularly for traders managing large positions.

Traders and market makers are preparing for potential volatility, including the possibility of sharp liquidations or short squeezes. The high open interest may lead to sharp price swings, especially if the market moves away from the max pain levels. Deribit data shows that Bitcoin’s put-call ratio is bearish, while Ethereum’s is neutral to bullish, suggesting different risk profiles for each asset. Strategies such as short strangles and gamma scalping may be employed to hedge against these risks. The outcome of the expiry will depend not only on market fundamentals but also on whale and institutional positioning in the final hours before settlement [3].

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