XRP Price Rally Hinges on Breaking This Key Resistance Zone

The XRP price is trading at $3.03, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours. The altcoin has been locked in a sideways range for several weeks, slipping 2.6% over the past seven days. One-month returns remain slightly negative at 1.4%, though the broader three-month picture still shows gains of nearly 30%.

The charts suggest the rally has stalled for now, and the next leg higher will depend on a single key barrier.

Large Holders Quietly Accumulate

One of the strongest signals comes from large whale wallets. On-chain data shows that addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have steadily increased their positions over the past few days.

On August 16, these wallets controlled about 7.51 billion XRP. By August 24, that figure had risen to 7.76 billion XRP.

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At today’s price of $3.03, this accumulation translates to roughly $758 million worth of tokens added in just a week. Such activity typically reflects confidence among whales, who tend to build positions before major moves.

Their buying has helped absorb some of the selling pressure, but it has not been enough to push the XRP price through the strongest resistance zone.

Heavy Supply Cluster Caps the Upside

That strong resistance zone becomes clearer on the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. This metric identifies the price levels where the largest volumes of XRP last changed hands, effectively showing areas of heavy supply.

The densest cluster currently sits between $3.26 and $3.29, where more than 1.05 billion XRP have been accumulated.

This zone has capped every upside attempt since early August. Even during brief rallies, buyers have struggled to clear it, reflecting the weight of supply overhead. Until XRP can break above this band, further gains are likely to remain limited.

Why This Level Matters for the Next XRP Price Rally

Trend-based Fibonacci extensions add weight to this analysis. The 0.786 retracement line aligns almost perfectly with the $3.29 level, confirming it as the pivot that needs to be breached.

If the XRP price manages a decisive breakout (a complete candle closing above), immediate upside targets would appear at $3.43 and the previous all-time high of $3.65. A stronger push could open the path toward $3.84.

There is precedent for such a move. XRP bulls have taken control of the price for the first time in nine days, highlighted by the developing green candle.

In early August, after bulls briefly took control of momentum, XRP jumped from $2.90 to $3.33 in a matter of sessions. A similar reaction could follow, pushing the XRP price closer to the $3.29 barrier.

Until then, whale accumulation may continue to support the price from below, but the rally remains capped by supply overhead.

Also, if whales get frustrated and start dumping, the XRP price could then look for support from the $2.78 level. A breach under it would invalidate the bullish outlook.

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