The Fed’s Baseline Scenario: A 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut in September

According to ChainCatcher, citing Jintou News, Huatai Securities Fixed Income Research stated that the current situation in the United States suggests that employment growth faces downside risks, which may require policy adjustments. Following Powell's speech, the market is trading on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and the probability of a soft landing for the U.S. economy has increased. It is expected that a 25 basis point rate cut in September is the baseline scenario, and the probability of two 25 basis point cuts in the fourth quarter may be higher than that of just one cut.