Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Trigger Market Shift This Week

On August 29, $13.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, a deadline that could dictate the market trajectory. BTC just hit its lowest point in six weeks, heightening tensions between weakened buyers and sellers determined to defend their positions. More than just a technical event, this clash over derivatives crystallizes the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s immediate future.

Options Under Threat : An Unbalanced Market Before Expiry

A few days before the monthly expiration of BTC options, available data reveals a stark imbalance between bullish and bearish positions, while the main crypto slows down .

The total amount of Bitcoin options expiring on August 29 stands at $13.8 billion, with 85 % of the volume concentrated on the Deribit platform.

The ratio between call and put options however reveals an overweight in bullish strategies in nominal value : “$7.44 billion of call options are open versus $6.37 billion of put options”.

However, this apparent dominance of bullish investors masks a less favorable technical reality: most call options are positioned well above Bitcoin’s current price, which fell to $112,100, its lowest level in six weeks.

In this configuration, put options clearly emerge stronger, as illustrated by the distribution of positions by price ranges on Deribit :

• Between $105,000 and $110,000 : $210M of call options versus $2.66B for put options ;
• Between $110,100 and $114,000 : $420M of call options versus $1.94B for put options ;
• Between $114,100 and $116,000 : $795M of call options versus $1.15B for put options ;
• Between $116,100 and $118,000 : bullish investors regain the advantage with $1.3B of call options versus $830M for put options ;
• Between $118,100 and $120,000 : the advantage is even more marked for bulls, with $1.7B of call options compared to only $560M of put options.

These scenarios favorable to bullish investors assume a rebound of Bitcoin above $116,000 before August 29, a hypothesis that seems less and less likely given the current pressure.

Indeed, only 12 % of call options have been placed at $115,000 or below, making the majority of these options out of the money at this stage. Sellers lie in wait, particularly around the $112,000 threshold, where a notable concentration of put options puts them in a strong position for the upcoming expiry.

Macroeconomic Pressures : When the Fed and AI Join the Match

Beyond the dynamics specific to the options market, operators closely watch the evolution of the macroeconomic environment. Jerome Powell’s speech, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, at the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for this Friday, is highly anticipated.

Indeed, the macroeconomic context remains foggy, fueled by the latest U.S. employment data. The figures released Thursday, higher than expected, add uncertainty to an already fragile market.

Another unexpected factor weighs on investor morale: rising concerns related to the financing of the artificial intelligence sector. Worries intensified after Morgan Stanley warned that increased spending might limit large tech companies’ ability to buy back their shares.

These signals from Wall Street foster increased caution in risk markets, including cryptos, which remain correlated with tech assets.

Ultimately, the outcome of the August 29 expiry could well depend on factors outside the crypto market. If Bitcoin fails to quickly regain $114,000, a pivot level identified as the tipping point between call and put options, sellers will largely win this battle. However, a Fed tone change as anticipated by Goldman Sachs , a calm in equity markets, and a new technical impulse could still reshuffle the cards.