Polymarket estimates a roughly 20% probability that Powell will step down in 2025

According to Jinse Finance, after media reports revealed that Trump had asked Republican lawmakers whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should be removed, the probability of Powell being dismissed surged to around 40% on prediction markets, and the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note dropped sharply. However, after Trump later clarified that he had "no intention of firing Powell," the predicted probability quickly fell back to around 20%, and yields partially rebounded.