Bitcoin Trades Near $107K as Q3 Kicks Off With Flat Action

• Bitcoin opened Q3 at minus 0.2 percent after gaining 29.74% in the second quarter.
• Only 6 of the past 12 Q3 periods ended with gains, showing no clear trend for this quarter.
• Bitcoin closed out a strong second quarter in June 2025 with a monthly gain of 2.49%.

Bitcoin has opened Q3 2025 with a flat return of -0.2%, according to data from Coinglass, placing it at a standstill as the quarter begins. This calm follows a sharp +29.74% rebound in Q2, which had lifted market sentiment after a -11.82% dip in Q1. However, the start of Q3 shows Bitcoin in a narrow range, neither breaking out nor breaking down, raising questions about what’s ahead.

Source: Coinglass

Historically, Bitcoin’s third quarters have shown no clear direction. Over the past 12 years, only 6 Q3 periods have ended in positive territory. The most notable gains were seen in 2013 (+40.6%), 2017 (+80.41%), and 2021 (+25.01%). But the coin has also seen deep losses in this same stretch, including 2014 (-39.54%) and 2019 (-22.86%). Even in 2023, which was largely viewed as a reset year, Q3 delivered a -11.54% drawdown.

Statistically, Bitcoin’s average Q3 return is +0.55%, while the median sits at -0.20%—the same level it began this quarter. This quarter historically offers no directional signal and tends to suggest indecision in price action. 

June’s Historical Role as Pivot Month

Bitcoin’s monthly activity through 2025 has shown alternating trends. January opened the year with +9.29%, while February fell -17.39% and March declined -2.3%. April surged +14.08%, followed by another gain in May at +10.99%. June added +2.49%, rounding out a strong Q2. 

Zooming out, Coinglass data shows that June has been historically mixed, with 7 years ending the month in the green. Notable bullish June months came in 2019 (+26.67%), 2016 (+27.14%), and 2015 (+15.19%). However, extreme drops occurred in 2022 (-37.28%), 2013 (-29.89%), and 2018 (-14.62%). On average, June yields a return of -0.14%, with a median of 2.20%. February and October have historically been among the most profitable months compared to the rest of the year.

Related: Figma Holds $70M in Bitcoin ETF as IPO Filing Goes Public

Market Metrics Suggest Stability Around $107K

As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $107,804.50, reflecting a +0.61% gain over the past week, based on data from CoinMarketCap. The market cap has climbed to $2.14 trillion, while daily trading volume rose 18.29% to $47.38 billion. Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now 19.88 million BTC, nearing the 21 million BTC maximum cap. This leaves just over 1 million BTC remaining to be mined globally. 

The fully diluted valuation of the token is $2.26 trillion, and its liquidity is decent, with a volume-to-market-cap ratio of 2.19%. The profile score of the asset maintains 100%, which enhances the confidence of buyers in the market despite the absence of momentum.

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