TL;DR
- Although the US SEC continues to delay making decisions on various XRP ETF applications, the potential approval odds on Polymarket exploded in early June.
- Perhaps the most notable reason behind this odd increase is a recent update by the US securities watchdog, which involved XRP and other altcoins.
Polymarket Odds Through the Roof
As perma-XRP bull John Squire informed recently, the chances for approval of a Ripple ETF by the end of the year had skyrocketed to 98%. Recall that the odds had dropped below 70% just a few weeks prior and recovered to 80% before the surge.
As of press time, the percentage has dropped to 88%, which is still a lot higher than the year’s average. When it comes down to a July 31 deadline, though, the odds are down to 17% and continue to get lower as the date approaches, and there are no big developments on the matter aside from SEC application delays .
The reason why odds on Polymarket are so important for future developments is the platform’s success rate. As reported earlier this year, its accuracy levels have been quite impressive, at around 90%.
Here’s Why the Odds Surged
Such an impressive pump in the approval odds from around 80% to almost 100% in a single day couldn’t be just a coincidence. In fact, it came after the SEC approved a NASDAQ crypto US settlement price index, which includes XRP, as well as other altcoins like ADA, SOL, and XLM.
According to crypto experts, this development is particularly important as it signals that these assets have solid liquidity and reliable pricing, and it removes key obstacles for spot ETF approvals.
Interestingly, the approval odds for ADA and SOL ETFs by the end of the year didn’t experience a similar surge. Moreover, the chances for Cardano are down to 42% from 70%, while those for Solana are at 79%, which is still lower than the percentages from a week ago.
