Goldman Sachs Significantly Lowers US Q1 GDP Growth Forecast to -0.8%
According to a report by Jinse, Goldman Sachs' latest research paper indicates that the US goods trade deficit in March widened more than expected. Both imports and exports of goods increased in March. The main reason for the widening trade deficit is the increase in imports of consumer goods, which may reflect a "race against time" before the tariff hikes. The details of the leading economic indicators report show that compared to our previous GDP tracking assumptions, import growth was significantly stronger, but export growth moderately strengthened, and the pace of inventory accumulation accelerated. Overall, we have lowered our tracking forecast for US first-quarter GDP by 0.6 percentage points to -0.8% (quarter-on-quarter annualized). The US GDP data will be released on the evening of the 30th.
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