Solana (SOL) is facing a tough month with forecasters predicting further declines in its price throughout March.
According to Polymarket data, the probability of Solana breaking above its all-time high of $300 this month has dropped to just 1% from 9% on March 2. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency has a 72% chance of falling to $110 from its current price of $118.94.
Solana’s struggles come amid broader turmoil in the cryptocurrency market. SOL has lost nearly 60% of its value since President Donald Trump took office. The decline is not limited to Solana, as rival cryptocurrency XRP is also facing a similar downtrend.
A number of factors contributed to this decline, including Trump’s volatile trade policies with China and allied countries, his pro-crypto stance falling short of industry expectations, and the $1.5 billion hack of the Bybit exchange.
Solana’s reputation also took a hit in February when Argentine President Javier Milei introduced the Libra memecoin, which was launched on the Solana network. The token reached a market value of $4 billion before crashing 80% in an hour, costing investors $1.6 billion in losses.
Adding to the uncertainty, Polymarket forecasters have lowered their expectations for Solana’s potential inclusion in the newly announced U.S. strategic crypto reserve. On March 2, when Trump unexpectedly announced the establishment of the reserve and suggested it could include Solana, the probability of SOL being included had reached 42%. However, those odds have since dropped to 23%.
The probability of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in 2025 also fell to 79% from 86% over the weekend, according to Polymarket, further dampening optimism. Several asset managers, including Franklin Templeton, have filed applications for a Solana ETF, some of which have been accepted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
*This is not investment advice.
