Arthur Hayes Claims Bitcoin Will Slump to $70,000 Before Rebounding to $250,000

Arthur Hayes predicted a dramatic crash in Bitcoin’s value but claimed that it would rebound to a new all-time high by the end of the year.

The majority of his arguments were unrelated to today’s DeepSeek-related market turmoil, but he claimed that these events could serve as a catalyst.

Arthur Hayes Expects a Mini-Financial Crisis for Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has dramatically changed his short-term predictions for Bitcoin. Earlier this month, he claimed that the price of Bitcoin would peak in mid-March before facing a severe correction.

However, today, Hayes updated his prediction to claim that BTC was already on the precipice of this decline.

“Reversing the order of my tryptic essay series. I am calling for a $70,000 to $75,000 correction in BTC, a mini financial crisis, and a resumption of money printing that will send us to $250,000 by the end of the year,” Hayes claimed.

Hayes later posted an extensive breakdown of this projection on his personal blog. He noted many global economic factors.

Hayes’ short-term bearish prediction for Bitcoin is based on the deteriorating global fiat liquidity environment. This is being driven by rising US 10-year Treasury yields, a tightening Federal Reserve, and slowed money printing in major economies like the US, China, and Japan.

These factors have increased financial stress. In turn, it’s creating a negative environment for fiat-priced assets, including Bitcoin, which Hayes argues is highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.

“Why do I believe in a 30% correction for Bitcoin? These types of pullbacks occur often throughout the bull market, given how volatile Bitcoin is. More importantly, the market exceeded the March 2024 all-time high right after Trump won re-election in early November 2024. Many others, including myself, have written extensively about how Trumpism heralds an acceleration of money printing in the US and how other nations would respond in kind with money printing programs of their own to boost their domestic economies,” Hayes wrote.

His initial predictions were unrelated to DeepSeek, the Chinese AI protocol that decimated the crypto market today. However, DeepSeek’s impact only increased his conviction.

Although BTC ETFs hit record volumes on Friday, long-term holders sold their assets in substantial quantities. Crypto-related firms like MicroStrategy also felt the sting of DeepSeek despite buying huge amounts of BTC.

For Hayes, however, this only enhanced pre-existing trends in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Price Chart. Source: BeInCrypto

Although President Trump has promised pro-crypto changes at many regulators, Hayes believes “the Fed will do what it can to frustrate the Trump agenda.” In short, he thinks personal vendettas will interfere with coherent policy.

Hayes also examined a few different nations’ economic policies and how they might impact Bitcoin. Ultimately, he remains confident that any doldrums will be temporary and only lead to greater gains.

For now, however, the price drops could prove quite painful.