Initial jobless claims rise during last week of November, lowers rate cut odds

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Jobs week continues with the latest initial claims report released this morning. The data came in a bit mixed, but is overall consistent with the 13-week moving average. These numbers are also the first we are getting in the holiday season, which is known as a volatile period . 

Initial jobless claims rose in the week ended Nov. 30, coming in at 224,000. This was a bit higher than analysts’ expectations of 215,000+ from the week prior, which was upwardly revised to 217,500. 

States with the biggest increases in initial claims include Pennsylvania and Kentucky.  

The overall 13-week moving average for initial claims is 226,000. 

Continuing claims eased a bit from 1.9 million a week prior to 1.87 million last week. Analysts had expected no change. 

Expectations for a 25-basis point interest rate cut later this month eased on the report. Fed funds futures markets now price in a 29.9% chance of Fed officials leaving interest rates unchanged, up from 21.9% on Wednesday. 

Stocks dipped a bit following the release, before paring gains later in the session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading relatively flat midway through Thursday’s session, down 0.04% and 0.06%, respectively, at 2 pm ET. 

Bitcoin meanwhile hovered in the $101,000 range this afternoon, sustaining its rally sparked Tuesday evening when the largest cryptocurrency broke $100,000 for the first time ever. More on that, and what we can expect next, below. 

We’ll need to see more Goldilocks data tomorrow in the November jobs report, which will be released at 8:30 am ET.

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