Bitcoin price falls, forward volatility jumps as traders brace for election: Analyst
Quick Take A rise in volatility means traders have a two-in-three chance of seeing swings of nearly 10% in the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum following Tuesday’s election, according to an analysis by Nick Forster, founder of DeFi options protocol Derive.xyz.

As former President Donald Trump's odds of victory on prediction markets have slipped following a spate of positive polling results for Democrats, even falling briefly below Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of victory on US-regulated market Kalshi, Bitcoin's price has fallen and volatility has widely increased.
Forward volatility for BTC and ETH spiked overnight, with Bitcoin's volatility now sitting at 80.30%, up from 72.20%, and Ethereum's at 82.92%, up from 75.40%, according to an analysis from Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra) founder Nick Forster .
"This escalation reflects traders are bracing for the election results, which could sway market prices substantially," Forster wrote. Forster projected a two-in-three likelihood that election night will lead to big swings in price "...ranging between -8.97% and +9.85% for BTC, and slightly wider swings for ETH, from -9.25% to +10.19%."
The price of Bitcoin had fallen from a recent high of about $72,600 on Oct. 31 to a low of about $67,500, a 7% drop, before recovering slightly to its current price of about $68,600 at time of publishing, according to The Block's Bitcoin Price Page .

If Bitcoin were to hold steady at this price, Forster's analysis projects a 68% chance of the world's largest cryptocurrency rising as high as $75,400 or as low as $62,500 following the election. What's more, Forster predicted a 5% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $57,000 or rising above $83,000 due to the increased forward volatility.
"Total call open interest for BTC stands at 1,179 compared to 885 puts, clearly signaling the market’s bullish inclination despite potential volatility," Forster noted.

Ethereum, which has seen a similar -9.2% drop in price since its value on Oct. 30 to its current value of about $2,450, has a 66% chance of rising as high as $2,700 or falling as low as $2,222, according to Forster's analysis, a slightly wider range than that of Bitcoin. The 5% likelihood case sees the price falling below $2,000 or rising above $2,975.
A Standard Chartered analyst also recently predicted high volatility in crypto prices surrounding the U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
New spot margin trading pair — HOLO/USDT!
FUN drops by 32.34% within 24 hours as it faces a steep short-term downturn
- FUN plunged 32.34% in 24 hours to $0.008938, marking a 541.8% monthly loss amid prolonged bearish trends. - Technical breakdowns, elevated selling pressure, and forced liquidations highlight deteriorating market sentiment and risk-off behavior. - Analysts identify key support below $0.0080 as critical, with bearish momentum confirmed by RSI (<30) and MACD indicators. - A trend-following backtest strategy proposes short positions based on technical signals to capitalize on extended downward trajectories.

OPEN has dropped by 189.51% within 24 hours during a significant market pullback
- OPEN's price plummeted 189.51% in 24 hours to $0.8907, marking its largest intraday decline in history. - The token fell 3793.63% over 7 days, matching identical monthly and yearly declines, signaling severe bearish momentum. - Technical analysts cite broken support levels and lack of bullish catalysts as key drivers of the sustained sell-off. - Absence of stabilizing volume or reversal patterns leaves the market vulnerable to further downward pressure.

New spot margin trading pair — LINEA/USDT!
Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More








