Analysis: Traders prepare for the U.S. election, BTC and ETH volatility significantly increases

As Trump's probability of winning in the prediction market slid after a series of Democratic Party poll results showed a positive trend, even once falling below Vice President Harris's odds on the US regulated market Kalshi, BTC prices fell and volatility significantly increased.

According to an analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH soared overnight. The current volatility rate for BTC is 80.30%, higher than 72.20%. The current volatility rate for ETH is 82.92%, higher than 75.40%.
"This increase reflects that traders are preparing for election results which could greatly affect market prices," Forster predicts there is a two-thirds chance that election night will cause significant price fluctuations, "The range of fluctuation for BTC lies between -8.97% to +9.85%, while ETH has slightly larger fluctuations ranging from -9.25% to +10.19%.

He pointed out: "The total open contract position for bullish options on BTC stands at 1,179 contracts while bearish options stand at 885 contracts; this clearly shows that despite potential volatility, the market still tends towards being bullish."