Fredi9999 holds over $20 million in Trump victory bets as manipulation on Polymarket raises concerns

With less than three weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, the behavior of Polymarket's top bettor has raised concerns about the accuracy and potential manipulation of decentralized prediction markets, Cointelegraph reported on October 18th. Former President Donald Trump's rising chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have been heavily influenced by Polymarket user 'Fredi9999,' a major bettor with more than $20 million worth of pro-Trump wagers.

Polymarket odds on Trump winning the presidential election rose to an all-time high of 60.2% on October 16th, and what is happening on Polymarket is now affecting the real world, with many people believing what they see on the platform.” “Fredi9999 has had a significant impact on the price of the Trump prediction market, with trading patterns suggesting that Fredi9999 can control the top four Trump whales on the Polymarket. “Each of these accounts received a large deposit from Kraken and immediately began betting on Trump. One user received a large deposit and put it towards Trump winning the popular vote, increasing his support from 26% to 39% in a matter of hours.

Elon Musk, however, believes that decentralized prediction markets may be more accurate than traditional polls in predicting election outcomes. Musk made the comments after recently increasing his support for Trump. Trump's potential odds of winning are also on the rise in traditional betting markets. According to data compiled by RealClearPolling, looking at overall betting odds aggregated by top sites, Trump's odds of winning stand at 58.1 percent, while Harris's odds of winning currently stand at 40.4 percent.