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Arthur Hayes reflects on market prediction accuracy

Arthur Hayes reflects on market prediction accuracy

GrafaGrafa2024/09/27 08:10
By:Liezl Gambe

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, disclosed in a recent essay that his market prediction accuracy over the past year is just 25%, admitting he only got 2 out of 8 predictions correct. 

"The Batting Average = .250. That's pretty shit to the common man," Hayes wrote, using a baseball analogy to describe his forecasting struggles.

Despite this, Hayes highlighted his ability to remain profitable by leveraging long-term macroeconomic trends. 

His self-reported track record covers predictions from November 2023 to September 2024, addressing topics such as Treasury bill issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policies.

While acknowledging his misses on short-term forecasts, Hayes reaffirmed his confidence in what he describes as the "volatility supercycle" thesis, which supports his long-term outlook on the markets.

Recently, his Maelstrom Fund sold 1.59 million PENDLE tokens, resulting in a $1.29 million loss, according to Spotonchain data.

In his latest analysis, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) might experience a gradual decline toward $50,000 before surging again. 

He admitted his previous prediction of Bitcoin's bull market resuming in September was incorrect, but he believes the bearishness is temporary. 

"I have changed my mind, but it doesn’t affect my positioning at all. I’m still long as [expletive]," he wrote.

Hayes, known for his views on market volatility and central bank policies, stands firm in his belief that governments will continue to print money to suppress volatility, eventually driving up Bitcoin's value. 

He advises crypto investors to be patient, saying, "The fiat required to keep volatility at suppressed levels will find its way into crypto," reaffirming Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial systems.

Going forward, Hayes expects major central banks to ease monetary policies, which he believes will further boost Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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