ETH 'bucking' crypto market downturn thanks to spot ether ETF excitement, analysts say

Ether is the winner among losers in the crypto market downturn, buoyed by excitement for spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

After the Securities and Exchange Commission approved eight spot ether ETFs Thursday, ether traded at $3,815, having increased 2.12% in the past 24 hours as of 5:19 p.m. ET (21:19 UTC). Conversely, bitcoin's price declined 2.35% in the same period to trade at $67,540, according to The Block prices .  

Grayscale Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told The Block that while outside forces depressed the crypto market, spot ether ETF mania helped sustain ether past a dip. Grayscale sponsors one of the ETFs approved by the SEC. 

"Broadly speaking, macro factors seem to be affecting crypto markets today. Strong economic data this morning resulted in higher real interest rates, which is weighing on both equity markets and crypto valuations," Pandl said. "Ethereum is largely bucking the trends, likely due to recently renewed optimism on the potential for regulatory approval of spot Ethereum ETF in the United States."

Spot ether ETF optimism began in earnest this week when Bloomberg ETF analysts Erich Balchunas and James Seyffart updated their predicted approval odds from 25% to 75% on May 20. Ethereum's price jumped 20.4% in a week, from about $3,099 on May 17 to current prices.

Pandl also tied the token's price jump once more to potential spot ether ETF regulatory approval in the United States, adding that the upside could continue if the product begins trading. 

Future outlook

As for what could lie ahead, Brian Rudick, senior strategist at crypto market-maker GSR, said, "We suspect performance will be substantial, as the likely spot ETH ETF approval is due to and accompanied by a significant positive change in how the US views crypto." 

Grayscale Investment's Ethereum-tied product, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), is already a winner among potential spot ether ETF frontrunners. The market had been anticipating an approval with ETHE currently trading at just 7% to the NAV, Rudick said. "Derivatives markets seem to corroborate this view, with straddles suggesting a 6% move."

The daily premium of ETH compared to NAV discount reached -7.19%, The Block's Data Dashboard shows.