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According to a report by Jinse Finance, Guojin Macro Research noted that Powell’s unexpected dovish turn at the Jackson Hole meeting came without warning, and some of his remarks were in stark contrast to his statements at the July FOMC press conference. In his review and outlook on the economy, Powell made a complete 180-degree shift in his view of the labor market, now expressing deep concern over downside risks to employment. This change in reference point is very similar to the decision not to cut rates in July, and is difficult to explain solely by changes in economic data. It may suggest that Trump’s political pressure on the Fed has finally paid off. Although the Fed has consistently maintained its expectation of two rate cuts in 2025, this clear dovish signal not only strengthens the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut in September, but also increases the possibility of consecutive rate cuts within the year. We would like to remind readers that the side effects of a relatively loose monetary policy environment and a dovish policy framework should not be overlooked; after a significant rate cut, the U.S. will face a higher inflation baseline if the economy reaccelerates, making future inflation dynamics harder to control. This year will see more “stagflation,” and next year, more “inflation.”

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