PENGU Token Value Soars: Analyzing November 2025’s Brief Rally and the Mindset of Investors

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PENGU Token Value Soars: Analyzing November 2025’s Brief Rally and the Mindset of Investors

Bitget-RWA2025/11/20 03:56

By:Bitget-RWA

- PENGU token surged in late 2025 due to technical indicators, on-chain activity, and investor psychology. - Mixed signals show bearish RSI (38.705) with bullish MACD/OBV and whale accumulation ($273K). - Short positions ($7.68M) and unquantified NVT score highlight risks amid $0.0235 resistance testing. - Whale transfers (2B tokens) and DeFi liquidity innovations add uncertainty to breakout potential.

The

PENGU

token, associated with the Pudgy Penguins NFT project, saw a significant price jump in late 2025, fueled by a blend of technical signals, blockchain activity, and shifting investor attitudes. As the token approaches a pivotal point, it is crucial to analyze how short-term trends and psychological influences interact to determine if this rally is a strong entry or exit moment.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Divergence and Subtle Bullish Clues

Recent blockchain metrics paint a complicated technical picture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for PENGU is at 38.705, indicating downward momentum and

12 sell signals from moving averages

, with no buy signals present. On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and

the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been climbing

since November 4, 2025, pointing to increased buying pressure. This gap between price movement and volume data suggests a possible stabilization period.

On-chain developments add further complexity. PENGU has broken out from a falling wedge pattern and is now testing a downward resistance line, with a crucial resistance at $0.0235.

Should this barrier hold and trading activity intensify

, the token may aim for $0.026. Large holders are also influential:

whales have accumulated $273,000 worth of PENGU

, which could help establish a price floor. Meanwhile,

exchange outflows in Q4 2025 reached $9.4 million

, while new inflows totaled $1.8 million, signaling cautious optimism among market participants.

Investor Sentiment: Accumulation, Short Interest, and Tactical Transfers

Investor actions highlight the token's volatility.

Whale accumulation of $273,000 in PENGU

suggests strategic moves ahead of a possible breakout, matching the on-chain breakout signals. In contrast,

short interest has climbed to $7.68 million

, reflecting persistent bearish outlooks. Additionally,

2 billion tokens were moved from team wallets

to exchanges during Q4 2025, a transfer that could be interpreted as either providing liquidity or a bearish indicator, depending on market perception.

The wider DeFi landscape also shapes sentiment.

Uniswap's recent introduction of Continuous Clearing Auctions

is designed to enhance price discovery and liquidity. Although PENGU's direct involvement in CCA is not confirmed, this mechanism's focus on transparent pricing could indirectly benefit tokens like PENGU by improving market clarity and reducing price swings.

Risks and Warnings: NVT Metric and Support-Level Weakness

Despite positive drivers, risks remain.

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio

for PENGU has not been determined, leaving investors without a clear benchmark to judge if the token is overpriced or undervalued. Furthermore, important support levels, such as $0.01454, are at risk of being breached, which could lead to a sharper decline. These factors underscore the importance of caution, especially given the token's mixed technical outlook.

Summary: Is This a Strong Entry or Exit Point?

PENGU's price rally in November 2025 offers a complex scenario for investors. While indicators like the MACD and OBV, along with whale buying, point to a possible bullish breakout, the bearish RSI, rising short interest, and unclear NVT ratio present notable risks. For those considering strong entries, it is vital to watch trading volume at the $0.0235 resistance and monitor whale activity. On the other hand, the increase in short positions and fragile support levels suggest that cautious exits or hedging may be prudent.

Ultimately, PENGU's future direction will depend on whether ongoing accumulation and DeFi-driven liquidity improvements can overcome the prevailing bearish technical signals.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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