Shutdown-Related Data Shortfalls Lead Fed to Delay Reducing Rates

Bitget App

Trade smarter

Bitget

News

Markets

Shutdown-Related Data Shortfalls Lead Fed to Delay Reducing Rates

Bitget-RWA2025/11/16 12:44

By:Bitget-RWA

- U.S. government shutdown ended Nov 12, 2025, but left critical economic data gaps for Fed's December rate decision. - 1.4 million furloughed workers and $11B lost output highlight shutdown's severe economic impact despite mixed private-sector data. - Fed faces delayed/missing jobs reports and CPI data, increasing likelihood of rate cut pause as policymakers emphasize data caution. - Market expectations shifted from 95.5% to 53.6% chance of December cut, reflecting demand for evidence-based monetary polic

After 43 days, the United States ended its longest-ever government shutdown on November 12, 2025, when Congress approved a bipartisan spending package to restore federal operations. Although this broke the political deadlock and eased immediate economic worries, it created a new challenge: a significant lack of essential economic data for Federal Reserve officials as they approach their December meeting. With key reports on jobs and inflation either postponed or possibly lost, the Fed must now navigate with limited visibility,

making it more likely that interest rate reductions will be put on hold

The shutdown had a major economic impact. Roughly 1.4 million federal employees were either furloughed or went without pay for a month and a half,

resulting in a projected $11 billion decrease in economic output

over the coming year, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Still, private-sector figures paint a somewhat less negative picture. The ADP report indicated private payrolls grew by 42,000 in October, surpassing forecasts, and

the Chicago Fed’s nowcast estimated unemployment

at 4.36% for both September and October.

Shutdown-Related Data Shortfalls Lead Fed to Delay Reducing Rates image 0

Despite these signals, the lack of official government statistics has left decision-makers with only a partial understanding of labor market conditions.

The Fed’s December gathering will proceed without access to the September and October employment numbers, the October inflation data, and other vital statistics.

Representatives from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have admitted

that the October CPI and jobs data may never be fully recovered, as data collection was either stopped or drastically reduced during the shutdown. This information gap has increased uncertainty among Fed policymakers, with several stressing the importance of patience. “It’s crucial to wait for as much data as possible before making decisions on rates,”

said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

, while

New York Fed President Michelle Witzman Collins remarked

she would be reluctant to loosen policy further without unmistakable evidence of a weakening labor market.

Financial markets have already adjusted their outlook. By November 13,

the odds of a rate cut in December had dropped

to 53.6%, down from 95.5% in early October, showing that traders expect the Fed to base its actions on available data rather than act preemptively. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s previous comments—highlighting the need for caution amid ongoing uncertainty—have further fueled this cautious approach. With the December meeting approaching,

more analysts are predicting a pause in rate reductions

, giving policymakers time to evaluate the economy with the limited information at hand.

The repercussions of the shutdown go beyond monetary policy.

Court-appointed defense lawyers who went unpaid

, and who represent 40% of low-income criminal defendants, experienced major disruptions, with many forced to borrow money or take extra jobs to get by. Although payments are set to resume, the backlog of pending cases highlights the wider strain on federal services.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

- Bitcoin's ecosystem shifts as DeFi adoption grows and miners pivot to AI/HPC, redefining its role beyond "digital gold." - Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) expands to Hedera , enabling BTC-based lending/trading via DeFi protocols, with Binance endorsing "BTCFi." - Bitfarms transitions from Bitcoin mining to GPU-as-a-Service, citing higher profitability amid rising energy costs and regulatory risks. - BitFuFu reports 100% YoY revenue growth ($180.7M) driven by cloud mining demand, as Bitcoin's price surge boosts in

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 21:16

Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Evolves from Digital Gold to a Powerhouse for DeFi and AI

Bitcoin Updates: Growing Bitcoin Acceptance and Robotics Funding Highlight Cryptocurrency’s Practical Progress

- Steak 'n Shake expands Bitcoin acceptance globally, citing 11% sales growth post-integration and symbolic support for El Salvador's BTC adoption. - Tether plans $1B investment in German robotics firm Neura, reflecting crypto capital's growing intersection with AI-driven physical-world innovation. - Bitcoin maximalist backlash forced Steak 'n Shake to reaffirm BTC-only payments, highlighting crypto community's influence on corporate strategy. - Strategic moves by fast-food chains and stablecoins signal cr

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 21:16

Bitcoin Updates: Growing Bitcoin Acceptance and Robotics Funding Highlight Cryptocurrency’s Practical Progress

Affordability Initiatives Challenge the Trade-Off Between Immediate Remedies and Sustainable Strategies

- Rising affordability demands drive policymakers and businesses to implement targeted price controls, supply-side reforms, and expanded cost-reduction programs across sectors. - Paysign Inc. reports $21.6M Q3 revenue surge from patient affordability programs, scaling infrastructure to meet surging demand for healthcare cost solutions. - Wayvia's AI-powered Retail Intelligence platform automates pricing enforcement, aligning with Stanford's call for temporary price controls through data-driven mechanisms.

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 21:16

Affordability Initiatives Challenge the Trade-Off Between Immediate Remedies and Sustainable Strategies

Dogecoin News Update: Crypto ETFs Indicate Widespread Adoption as XRP Launch Breaks $58M Trading Volume Record

- Canary Capital's XRPC ETF shattered records with $58M in day-one trading, outperforming Bitwise's Solana ETF . - SEC's regulatory clarity accelerated crypto ETF launches, enabling XRPC's Nasdaq listing and spurring XRP/DOGE ETF proposals. - Dogecoin's DOJE ETF generated $17M in September, reflecting growing demand for meme-coin exposure despite hybrid structure. - XRP price dipped 3% but ETF outperformed 2024 launches, highlighting crypto's shift from speculative bets to mainstream assets. - Mixed crypto

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 21:16